[Goose]

Losing Kheimim airbase would cripple Russia force projection to Africa.

https://x.com/JohnLechner1/status/1865104493282533445

I agree with Lechner that Libya is too far from Russia to be a viable alternative using only air transport. However the preferred way of moving military material to Africa is by sea and always has been. Russia would prefer to use sea transport from the Black Sea. That is what they did in the past. It is the closest route with the best weather. Russia still uses it today, stopping off in Syria if required/useful. However, due to the Ukraine war and the Montreux Convention shipping military equipment through the Dardanelles is risky. It isn't supposed to happen. If Russia gets caught it at a minimum fails to get the shipment  through and is embarrassed. That has happened. In theory the ship can be impounded. Russia must at a minimum not be too obvious about it. The "once a week turn" that used to exist no longer does, since 2022. When the war ends that constraint goes away. Until then, Russia can use ships from either Arctic or Baltic ports to do so. Further and colder, but that isn't caused by problems in Syria. Personnel can still go by air even without the Syrian air base. Things like ammunition and vehicles don't go that way in any case. Lechner seems to ignore this possibility.

Making Libya the Russian "hub" in Africa wouldn't be all that difficult if the NATO countries didn't object. Russia really wanted to do so in cold war days, but Gaddafi knew NATO South and the 6th fleet wouldn't stand for it. I suspect Haftar got the same message. Of course, 6th fleet is not even a shadow of its former self. I am guessing Russia won't push the issue right now. One end of the Med is already effectively closed to their Navy. Closing the other end wouldn't be that difficult.

[Goose]

Losing Kheimim airbase would cripple Russia force projection to Africa.

https://x.com/JohnLechner1/status/1865104493282533445

I agree with Lechner that Libya is too far from Russia to be a viable alternative using only air transport. However the preferred way of moving military material to Africa is by sea and always has been. Russia would prefer to use sea transport from the Black Sea. That is what they did in the past. It is the closest route with the best weather. Russia still uses it today, stopping off in Syria if required/useful. However, due to the Ukraine war and the Montreux Convention shipping military equipment through the Dardanelles is risky. It isn't supposed to happen. If Russia gets caught it at a minimum fails to get the shipment  through and is embarrassed. That has happened. In theory the ship can be impounded. Russia must at a minimum not be too obvious about it. The "once a week turn" that used to exist no longer does, since 2022. When the war ends that constraint goes away. Until then, Russia can use ships from either Arctic or Baltic ports to do so. Further and colder, but that isn't caused by problems in Syria. Personnel can still go by air even without the Syrian air base. Things like ammunition and vehicles don't go that way in any case. Lechner seems to ignore this possibility.

Making Libya the Russian "hub" in Africa wouldn't be all that difficult if the NATO countries didn't object. Russia really wanted to do so in cold war days, but Gaddafi knew NATO South and the 6th fleet wouldn't stand for it. I suspect Haftar got the same message. Of course, 6th fleet is not even a shadow of its former self. I am guessing Russia won't push the issue right now. One end of the Med is already effectively closed to their Navy. Closing the other end wouldn't be that difficult.