[Goose]

https://x.com/mintelworld/status/1865082111058739365

Russia withdrawing from Kheimim airbase in western Syria to their naval base on the Mediterranean at Tartus. They see the writing on the wall. I'm not sure exactly what infantry assets Russia has on the ground but I don't think they have enough to mount any sort of sustained defense. I think they are going to be getting the hell out of dodge.

Regime forces seem to have lost most of southern Syria overnight as well. Iranian and Iraqi militias seem to be purposefully not getting involved. Endgame time now.

Withdrawing these air defense assets is indeed an indication the Russians fear for their security at the air base. The more important question is whether they are withdrawing their air assets from that base. Russia does not and never did have a large infantry/armor presence in Syria. Their current strength is much reduced from its peak. What Russia does have is aircraft capable of ground attack. If those aircraft are still in place, Russia hasn't given up yet and is still a formidable force. AFAIK, nobody is reporting that has happened yet.

Withdrawing all the aircraft (including some that are down for maintenance) on short notice is not an easy thing, especially if you do not have a plan in place to do it. One problem is that flying from Syria to any Russian air base isn't so easy. The only way to do it requires crossing Türkiye or Iraq. Both would be quite nervous about a bunch of Russia fighters crossing their airspace, or would pretend to be.  Türkiye for sure would extract something for granting permission. The MIG-31s in Syria would not be able to carry a weapons load in any case. They would need to be in a "ferry" configuration to cover the required distance. Russia would also have to withdraw all its support personnel from the air base. That won't be easy either.

[Goose]

https://x.com/mintelworld/status/1865082111058739365

Russia withdrawing from Kheimim airbase in western Syria to their naval base on the Mediterranean at Tartus. They see the writing on the wall. I'm not sure exactly what infantry assets Russia has on the ground but I don't think they have enough to mount any sort of sustained defense. I think they are going to be getting the hell out of dodge.

Regime forces seem to have lost most of southern Syria overnight as well. Iranian and Iraqi militias seem to be purposefully not getting involved. Endgame time now.

Withdrawing these air defense assets is indeed an indication the Russians fear for their security at the air base. The more important question is whether they are withdrawing their air assets from that base. Russia does not and never did have a large infantry/armor presence in Syria. Their current strength is much reduced from its peak. What Russia does have is aircraft capable of ground attack. If those aircraft are still in place, Russia hasn't given up yet and is still a formidable force. AFAIK, nobody is reporting that has happened yet.

Withdrawing all the aircraft (including some that are down for maintenance) on short notice is not an easy thing, especially if you do not have a plan in place to do it. One problem is that flying from Syria to any Russian air base isn't so easy. The only way to do it requires crossing Türkiye or Iraq. Both would be quite nervous about a bunch of Russia fighters crossing their airspace, or would pretend to be.  Türkiye for sure would extract something for granting permission. The MIG-31s in Syria would not be able to carry a weapons load in any case. They would need to be in a "ferry" configuration to cover the required distance. Russia would also have to withdraw all its support personnel from the air base. That won't be easy either.