(12-05-2024, 04:31 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: The only way Russia keeps their bases now is if they play nice with HTS. Assad lost Aleppo and Hama in less than a week; it's only a matter of time now for him.Maybe, maybe not. I don't know what the actual correlation of forces is. I am not sure anybody does. There are many cases of successful military advances reaching the limit of their supply lines and stalling. There are also quite a few cases of such advances being driven back as fast as they advanced. The latter is especially common when at least one "irregular" force is involved. Obviously Assad's regime is in a seriously bad position. The fact he is in Russia doesn't help. How many Iranian backed militia have entered Syria from Iraq? What will they do? Will they cooperate with HTS or do their own thing? Is Iran helping HTS, or is it helping Assad? Will the Iranian backed militias help Assad for Russia's sake or will they try to take over the country for themselves? If the latter, what will Israel do? Iraq is certainly more than a bit worried about all this. Could get real messy.
From the US point of view, HTS cooperating with Russia could be much more disruptive than Assad doing so. Assad was just trying to hang on. HTS might have more ambitious plans after a victory over Assad's forces and a "treaty" with Russia.