[GK3]

Even if Ukraine could recover that territory, how much of that industry could be restarted?  Like, is the steel plant in Mariupol going to even be operational?  And if it could be restarted, will Ukraine have the population to run it?  The pre-war population of Mariupol was about 425,000; it is currently about 120,000.  I presume that the what’s left is mostly retirees; it is doubtful that many working age men are going to be there as they would have fought the Russians, been shipped to camps, or forced to fight for the Russians.

The Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol will not be "restarted". The plant used blast furnaces built during Soviet times. There are six of them. The plant was producing 4.3 million tons per year in 2021. The "capacity" was 9+ million tons per year, but it hasn't operated anywhere near that for many years. As https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azovstal_I...teel_Works says, its equipment is "totally obsolete", as are most properties of the Metinvest group. In 2011 Azovstal decommissioned its open-hearth plant. In December 2012, Metinvest decided to close the sinter plant at Azovstal.  In short, it isn't coming back. Metinvest does have other properties in Ukraine that are still inside Ukrainian territory, i.e. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhstal. This plant is also hopelessly obsolete but still capable of operation. It is of interest to note that in https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodit...023-07-05/ Metinvest states

Transporting steel from its other plants overland to ports elsewhere remains too expensive to be viable.

Sound familiar? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metinvest is also worth a look. It gives some perspective on the residual "smokestack" industry in Ukraine.

As far as replacing the 10,500 employees that worked at the Azovstal plant, that would be no problem. Even if all 300,000 people who fled the city wouldn't return, finding enough to run that plant would be easily possible. It is moot, because the plant isn't worth the cost of repair. However, before the war this and other plants did contribute significant steel and iron exports to Ukraine's "bottom line". That won't happen any more. Even the ones that still operate need close sea transport to make a profit. Steel is heavy. Rail is 4 times as costly per ton/mile. Simple really. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_prod...in_Ukraine is also very informative, particularly regarding the problems with coal mining in Ukraine and the high cost of iron ore extraction.

Given that a war is being fought in the territory, there will be tons (literally) of unexploded ordinance and mines pretty much everywhere.  My guess is that the loss of capital and labor in the region is staggering, so if Ukraine is not a viable country without those regions, then it would not be a viable country for many years even with the territory.  At this point, it would mostly serve as a buffer between what’s left of Ukraine and Russia.

BC

The mines exist mostly in areas where Russia conducted defensive operations. The areas on the south east cost of Ukraine were never actually fought over in most cases and the damage is fairly localized. The railroad through Mariupol to Crimea is in better shape than ever before. The Russian have installed new bridges and double tracked it in places to increase its freight capacity. The port of Mariupol has been fully open and operational since July, 2022. The port of Berdiansk is also fully operational. The M14 highway is fully open. The people remaining in these areas are living somewhat normal lives, if you don't mind being occupied by Russians. The important point is that these transportation capabilities are perfectly functional right now, today. Utilizing them would enable the rest of the Ukraine to export its products at low enough costs that they could be economically viable. Without them they cannot.

It is true that the capital loss in the destroyed areas of Donbas is staggering. If there is any silver lining it is that lots of it, like the Azovstal plant itself, was tremendously obsolete. It was only operating because "it was there" and probably wouldn't be much longer even if there were no war. In any European country it would not be operating. Too dirty and too inefficient. However, IMO it is important not to overreact.

Ukraine was a signatory to the Ottawa accords. Russia was not. Ukraine has not made much use of anti-personnel mines because the ones they had were supposed to be destroyed and were not safe to use. If Ukraine had such mines Russia's "meat attacks" would be even more disastrous than they already are. When one looks at things like https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw...-minefield the situation initially sounds dire. However, when you go through the article you find the dire predictions are not supported by ground truth. From the article

According to estimates by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, from the beginning of the full-scale war until 23 October 2023 261 individuals have been killed and 559 wounded by mines and other explosive devices. The number of victims includes 68 children, out of which 14 have died.

Bad, but hardly dire. Regarding civilian deaths from cluster munitions

In 2022 alone, 916 individuals were killed by this type of weapon, including 890 who have died in an immediate attack using cluster munitions and 26 due to their contact with unexploded cluster shells.

OK, 890 civilians were killed by attacks using cluster munitions. Pretty likely that any civilians caught in any kind of artillery barrage will suffer mass casualties. 26 died due to their contact with unexploded cluster shells. For the 26 individuals, the effects were dire, but for Ukraine as a whole it isn't even round-off error. Other nations, like almost every nation participating in WW I have had massive ordinance clearance requirements. In the WW II battle of Kursk Red Army combat engineers laid 503,993 anti-tank mines and 439,348 anti-personnel mines. People live on that battlefield today. It is being fought over yet again. I am sure the Russians laid more mines, but not that many! The problem has been solved in the past and can be in the future. Ukraine may have to put up fences around some of the more elaborate Russian minefields built in the south to protect the Russian fortifications. They can clear them slowly over time.

In the meantime, Ukraine could use that which isn't mined and isn't destroyed to export Ukrainian goods! THAT is the immediate value of these occupied territories. They do have other value in terms of resources for the future, but right now it is ACCESS to the sea that matters most.

The economic situation in Russia remains a question of serious interest.  The following article covers a lot of the major points and reminds me of the old adage, "Figures don't lie, but Liars figure"
https://warontherocks.com/2024/09/russia...-how-slow/

[GK3]

Even if Ukraine could recover that territory, how much of that industry could be restarted?  Like, is the steel plant in Mariupol going to even be operational?  And if it could be restarted, will Ukraine have the population to run it?  The pre-war population of Mariupol was about 425,000; it is currently about 120,000.  I presume that the what’s left is mostly retirees; it is doubtful that many working age men are going to be there as they would have fought the Russians, been shipped to camps, or forced to fight for the Russians.

The Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol will not be "restarted". The plant used blast furnaces built during Soviet times. There are six of them. The plant was producing 4.3 million tons per year in 2021. The "capacity" was 9+ million tons per year, but it hasn't operated anywhere near that for many years. As https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azovstal_I...teel_Works says, its equipment is "totally obsolete", as are most properties of the Metinvest group. In 2011 Azovstal decommissioned its open-hearth plant. In December 2012, Metinvest decided to close the sinter plant at Azovstal.  In short, it isn't coming back. Metinvest does have other properties in Ukraine that are still inside Ukrainian territory, i.e. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhstal. This plant is also hopelessly obsolete but still capable of operation. It is of interest to note that in https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodit...023-07-05/ Metinvest states

Transporting steel from its other plants overland to ports elsewhere remains too expensive to be viable.

Sound familiar? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metinvest is also worth a look. It gives some perspective on the residual "smokestack" industry in Ukraine.

As far as replacing the 10,500 employees that worked at the Azovstal plant, that would be no problem. Even if all 300,000 people who fled the city wouldn't return, finding enough to run that plant would be easily possible. It is moot, because the plant isn't worth the cost of repair. However, before the war this and other plants did contribute significant steel and iron exports to Ukraine's "bottom line". That won't happen any more. Even the ones that still operate need close sea transport to make a profit. Steel is heavy. Rail is 4 times as costly per ton/mile. Simple really. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_prod...in_Ukraine is also very informative, particularly regarding the problems with coal mining in Ukraine and the high cost of iron ore extraction.

Given that a war is being fought in the territory, there will be tons (literally) of unexploded ordinance and mines pretty much everywhere.  My guess is that the loss of capital and labor in the region is staggering, so if Ukraine is not a viable country without those regions, then it would not be a viable country for many years even with the territory.  At this point, it would mostly serve as a buffer between what’s left of Ukraine and Russia.

BC

The mines exist mostly in areas where Russia conducted defensive operations. The areas on the south east cost of Ukraine were never actually fought over in most cases and the damage is fairly localized. The railroad through Mariupol to Crimea is in better shape than ever before. The Russian have installed new bridges and double tracked it in places to increase its freight capacity. The port of Mariupol has been fully open and operational since July, 2022. The port of Berdiansk is also fully operational. The M14 highway is fully open. The people remaining in these areas are living somewhat normal lives, if you don't mind being occupied by Russians. The important point is that these transportation capabilities are perfectly functional right now, today. Utilizing them would enable the rest of the Ukraine to export its products at low enough costs that they could be economically viable. Without them they cannot.

It is true that the capital loss in the destroyed areas of Donbas is staggering. If there is any silver lining it is that lots of it, like the Azovstal plant itself, was tremendously obsolete. It was only operating because "it was there" and probably wouldn't be much longer even if there were no war. In any European country it would not be operating. Too dirty and too inefficient. However, IMO it is important not to overreact.

Ukraine was a signatory to the Ottawa accords. Russia was not. Ukraine has not made much use of anti-personnel mines because the ones they had were supposed to be destroyed and were not safe to use. If Ukraine had such mines Russia's "meat attacks" would be even more disastrous than they already are. When one looks at things like https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw...-minefield the situation initially sounds dire. However, when you go through the article you find the dire predictions are not supported by ground truth. From the article

According to estimates by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, from the beginning of the full-scale war until 23 October 2023 261 individuals have been killed and 559 wounded by mines and other explosive devices. The number of victims includes 68 children, out of which 14 have died.

Bad, but hardly dire. Regarding civilian deaths from cluster munitions

In 2022 alone, 916 individuals were killed by this type of weapon, including 890 who have died in an immediate attack using cluster munitions and 26 due to their contact with unexploded cluster shells.

OK, 890 civilians were killed by attacks using cluster munitions. Pretty likely that any civilians caught in any kind of artillery barrage will suffer mass casualties. 26 died due to their contact with unexploded cluster shells. For the 26 individuals, the effects were dire, but for Ukraine as a whole it isn't even round-off error. Other nations, like almost every nation participating in WW I have had massive ordinance clearance requirements. In the WW II battle of Kursk Red Army combat engineers laid 503,993 anti-tank mines and 439,348 anti-personnel mines. People live on that battlefield today. It is being fought over yet again. I am sure the Russians laid more mines, but not that many! The problem has been solved in the past and can be in the future. Ukraine may have to put up fences around some of the more elaborate Russian minefields built in the south to protect the Russian fortifications. They can clear them slowly over time.

In the meantime, Ukraine could use that which isn't mined and isn't destroyed to export Ukrainian goods! THAT is the immediate value of these occupied territories. They do have other value in terms of resources for the future, but right now it is ACCESS to the sea that matters most.

The economic situation in Russia remains a question of serious interest.  The following article covers a lot of the major points and reminds me of the old adage, "Figures don't lie, but Liars figure"
https://warontherocks.com/2024/09/russia...-how-slow/