12-01-2024, 09:58 PM
(12-01-2024, 07:45 PM)M T Wrote: Some people can always find reasons for whatever choice they make (I'm still remembering early season denigration of the team).As a Stanford fan I definitely had similar thoughts about the opponents, recency, travel and more.
How about recency? Stanford's 2nd to last loss was 7 weeks ago and last loss was 4.5 weeks ago. Louisville's 2nd to last loss was, uh, 5 days ago.
Louisville's last win over a top 25 team was 5 weeks ago. Stanford's last win over a top 5 team was yesterday (with a win over a top 25 team 5 days ago).
How about travel effects? Stanford's nearest-to-home loss was 2000 miles away. Louisville lost twice at home and lost the only game it played with a 3 hour time-difference (but they made sure it won't happen again this year, didn't they).
Counting losses as contributing to SOS is rather inane. You could have no wins but a great SOS.
Using NCAA's posted RPI ratings (top 50 only)
Stanford beat #3(H), #7(AF), #8(NF), #9(H), #11(H), #17(AF), #25(H), #25(AF), #26(NF), #27(AF), #28(AF), #35(H), #49(AF),
Louisville beat #4(H), #6(H), #7(A), #8(H), #9(AL), #25(H), #27(H), #28(A), #33(H), #37(A), #35(H),
[H: Home, A: Away, F: 2+ time zones away, L: < 100 miles]
Both teams had 5 top-11 wins with a slight edge to Louisville on their rankings, but an edge to Stanford on travel issues.
Stanford had two extra wins against top 50 teams.
That's hard to justify that Louisville had a better SOS.
And yet,
When you look at the RPI elements the worst loss has its own column to call that out, and that Miami loss locks bad on that table and was bad in reality. Yes, the HS style gym is a quirky environment and I am confident future Stanford squads will handle that better, but on paper....
When Stanford was at Louisville they beat Stanford with a rather convincing 3-0 win.
I feared Stanford would get the two seed the moment Louisville won that 3rd set because that meant Louisville swept Stanford at home and managed to win one set at Stanford.
Ultimately the loss to Miami was probably the bigger deal because Miami was a rather weak team and the other top teams just didn't have losses to teams at that level.

