[M T]

1. Will Chiney develop a better jump shot?
She continues to be effective, even when playing alone inside against a zone, but I have not seen her sinking lots of jump shots so far.  Am I missing them?

I guess your concern here is that if the defense can pack it in & cut off passes to the inside, can Chiney (et al) still get the ball & score.

From the play-by-plays (by game,  Baylor was the 3rd game)
Layups: 8/10 ; 3/6 ; 1/2 ; 0/1 ; 7/8 ; 5/7  Total: 24/34
Jumpers (made shots are distinguished whether they are in the paint; misses aren't) 
(Format: Paint FG + non-Paint FG / Total attempts)
  1+1 / 4 ; 2+4 / 8 ; 3+3 / 10 ; 4+1 /9 ; 5+0 / 8 ; 1+0 / 2  Total 16+9 / 41
3Ptrs:  Against Baylor (game 3): 1/2

That's not many points outside the paint, but by itself that doesn't prove much.  These stats don't give us a good read on jumpers other than outside the paint she's no worse than 9/25 (36%).  I'd guess she's shooting closer to 50%, just like she is on the small sample of 3 pointers.  She was 60% for all jumpers in the Baylor game, which is probably the best indication.

2. Will Joslyn be more consistent on offense, and have her best year ever?
My impression of Joslyn a couple of years ago was that she could score against shorter, less athletic, inferior players with ease, but she went dormant against equals.  Against Baylor she scored 11 points on 4/7 shooting--so she has proven she can hold her own against quality opposition.  Her defense has also improved.  But I'm not ready to check this one off the list just yet.

Why not ask the same question of Chiney?  If we take the Baylor game this year, last year's last 3 games in the tourney, and the last two games against Cal, Chiney scored 74pts in 196 min (15.1pt/40min), while Joslyn scored 58 in 189 min (12.3pt/40min).  This year, they're averaging 26.3pt/40min and 23.2pt/40min.  If Joslyn had done relatively poorer than Chiney in those 6 games against quality opponents, then I might accept your concerns.  But I'd say the numbers aren't there to support the concern, unless you're similarly concerned about Chiney.

4. Will Amber develop any regular 3 pt. shot?
She is 2/5 so far, but she regularly hits fairly long 2 point jumpers, so the trend is in the right direction.

At 18.1pts/40min and 8.6A/40min, she's doing quite well offensively so far.  My concern is her ability to deal with quick opponents, and to keep her head (and the ball) in an intense press.

5. Will Taylor learn how to score more and not just defend?
She is averaging 6.8 ppg so far this season, and averaged 3.6 ppg last season.  So far so good.

That's 11.7pts/40min, with 43% 3PT average.  She's clearly capable of scoring, but she's not taken on that role.

7. Will Jasmine get back to form after injury?
She does seem to have her speed and quickness back, but not her shot yet.  She only played in 8 games last year but averaged 3.6 ppg.  So far this year she is averaging 1.2. 

If there is a problem with Toni that impairs her performance through the year, one of Sara or Jasmine is going to be needed.  I was impressed with some of Sara's play against Corban, but haven't seen her do that again in the limited time I've been able to see her play. 

8. Will Tess be more than a limited-time defensive player during her first year?  Will she show signs of becoming the next Jayne?
Bob immediately rejected the premise of my question--that Tess could be judged by Jayne standards.  Well, OK.  How about Dolson instead?  Kidding aside, Tess is showing a lot of growth and improvement, but it remains to be seen how far she can go.  Watching her development is going to be interesting this year into next.

From the little I've seen, I can't see her contributing during any serious game this year.  I hope she's up to the task next year.

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My thoughts are that we seem to be a team that will be good overall, but our ability to beat Baylor will depend upon our 3 point production.  We did it once; we'll likely have to do it again.  Can we sustain that? 

If we rain threes, we should be able to beat any team, once we get the ball into the front court.  UConn & other teams that are quick will press us.  I believe that our forwards are cool-headed enough to help break a press, if they're expecting it.  But if we only have two guards back and are hit with a press, I'm concerned.  I believe Toni can handle that, if she's ok.

Our offense will mainly come from our forwards against most teams (with Amber feeding them).  If they're thwarted (from getting the ball, or by foul trouble, etc), we would then rely on threes to change things.  If that fails, we'd like to see drives to the basket (Toni).  If that fails, the other team should be in foul trouble.

One problem of having 3pt shooting as an important factor is that it seems players can lose their confidence and stop hitting.  Does anyone have a good explanation why we shot threes so poorly against Fresno State??  We had our shots; we just didn't make them.

[M T]

1. Will Chiney develop a better jump shot?
She continues to be effective, even when playing alone inside against a zone, but I have not seen her sinking lots of jump shots so far.  Am I missing them?

I guess your concern here is that if the defense can pack it in & cut off passes to the inside, can Chiney (et al) still get the ball & score.

From the play-by-plays (by game,  Baylor was the 3rd game)
Layups: 8/10 ; 3/6 ; 1/2 ; 0/1 ; 7/8 ; 5/7  Total: 24/34
Jumpers (made shots are distinguished whether they are in the paint; misses aren't) 
(Format: Paint FG + non-Paint FG / Total attempts)
  1+1 / 4 ; 2+4 / 8 ; 3+3 / 10 ; 4+1 /9 ; 5+0 / 8 ; 1+0 / 2  Total 16+9 / 41
3Ptrs:  Against Baylor (game 3): 1/2

That's not many points outside the paint, but by itself that doesn't prove much.  These stats don't give us a good read on jumpers other than outside the paint she's no worse than 9/25 (36%).  I'd guess she's shooting closer to 50%, just like she is on the small sample of 3 pointers.  She was 60% for all jumpers in the Baylor game, which is probably the best indication.

2. Will Joslyn be more consistent on offense, and have her best year ever?
My impression of Joslyn a couple of years ago was that she could score against shorter, less athletic, inferior players with ease, but she went dormant against equals.  Against Baylor she scored 11 points on 4/7 shooting--so she has proven she can hold her own against quality opposition.  Her defense has also improved.  But I'm not ready to check this one off the list just yet.

Why not ask the same question of Chiney?  If we take the Baylor game this year, last year's last 3 games in the tourney, and the last two games against Cal, Chiney scored 74pts in 196 min (15.1pt/40min), while Joslyn scored 58 in 189 min (12.3pt/40min).  This year, they're averaging 26.3pt/40min and 23.2pt/40min.  If Joslyn had done relatively poorer than Chiney in those 6 games against quality opponents, then I might accept your concerns.  But I'd say the numbers aren't there to support the concern, unless you're similarly concerned about Chiney.

4. Will Amber develop any regular 3 pt. shot?
She is 2/5 so far, but she regularly hits fairly long 2 point jumpers, so the trend is in the right direction.

At 18.1pts/40min and 8.6A/40min, she's doing quite well offensively so far.  My concern is her ability to deal with quick opponents, and to keep her head (and the ball) in an intense press.

5. Will Taylor learn how to score more and not just defend?
She is averaging 6.8 ppg so far this season, and averaged 3.6 ppg last season.  So far so good.

That's 11.7pts/40min, with 43% 3PT average.  She's clearly capable of scoring, but she's not taken on that role.

7. Will Jasmine get back to form after injury?
She does seem to have her speed and quickness back, but not her shot yet.  She only played in 8 games last year but averaged 3.6 ppg.  So far this year she is averaging 1.2. 

If there is a problem with Toni that impairs her performance through the year, one of Sara or Jasmine is going to be needed.  I was impressed with some of Sara's play against Corban, but haven't seen her do that again in the limited time I've been able to see her play. 

8. Will Tess be more than a limited-time defensive player during her first year?  Will she show signs of becoming the next Jayne?
Bob immediately rejected the premise of my question--that Tess could be judged by Jayne standards.  Well, OK.  How about Dolson instead?  Kidding aside, Tess is showing a lot of growth and improvement, but it remains to be seen how far she can go.  Watching her development is going to be interesting this year into next.

From the little I've seen, I can't see her contributing during any serious game this year.  I hope she's up to the task next year.

---

---

My thoughts are that we seem to be a team that will be good overall, but our ability to beat Baylor will depend upon our 3 point production.  We did it once; we'll likely have to do it again.  Can we sustain that? 

If we rain threes, we should be able to beat any team, once we get the ball into the front court.  UConn & other teams that are quick will press us.  I believe that our forwards are cool-headed enough to help break a press, if they're expecting it.  But if we only have two guards back and are hit with a press, I'm concerned.  I believe Toni can handle that, if she's ok.

Our offense will mainly come from our forwards against most teams (with Amber feeding them).  If they're thwarted (from getting the ball, or by foul trouble, etc), we would then rely on threes to change things.  If that fails, we'd like to see drives to the basket (Toni).  If that fails, the other team should be in foul trouble.

One problem of having 3pt shooting as an important factor is that it seems players can lose their confidence and stop hitting.  Does anyone have a good explanation why we shot threes so poorly against Fresno State??  We had our shots; we just didn't make them.