[Goose]

I don't think he is "dumb" but more like say Stalin or Hitler whose vison of the world drove them to try and create it without too much regard to whether it was possible.  At this point, Putin probably gets Ukraine, but what does he get? a destroyed country where anyone who can has already left.  I don't think Putin has enough financial resources to rebuild his own economy much less rebuild the Ukraine's  So now he is left with diminished markets for his hydrocarbons, much of his foreign bank assets seized etc. My guess is he won't survive his "victory" very long.

These dictators very much did believe it was possible. In Stalin's case, despite all the mistakes he made, it was possible. His country survived and he got control of eastern Europe. Hitler repeatedly took chances that no "sane" leader would take. He did this because he thought he understood the psychology of his opponents and because he felt he was "destined" for success. His initial successes convinced him he was correct and would succeed. His country bought into it. He came closer than he had any right to expect given his initial starting point.

Putin expected a 3 day war with "quick" success. Most of the world expected the same. Obviously that wasn't an irrational expectation given how common it was. When that didn't happen, mostly due to Russian incompetence and somewhat due to fierce Ukrainian resistance, Putin undoubtedly found himself in the position of the German generals after the UK and France held firm on their declaration of war over Poland. The question became "What now?". Putin really had no other choice, and I suspect his generals assured him that it would still all be over "soon".

Obviously I agree that starting a war to capture Ukraine, even a 3 day one, was foolish. Best case Putin would have been faced with a guerilla war in a desperately poor country. It actually has turned out much, much worse than that for him, once again illustrating that nothing in war is "certain". One has to "make it happen", and if one can not or does not the results can be pretty bad :-).

I don't agree that Putin's days are numbered once Russia figures out what this war as cost them in money, prestige, and blood. Appeals to Russian patriotism go a long way. The "state" can declare victory and therefore it is a victory. Russians are also fatalistic, probably as a result of their history. Most important of all, the "If not Putin, who?" question remains unanswered. One only has to look at the example of Saddam Hussein or even Hitler himself. All of Germany knew the war was lost by 1945 at the latest. Most knew it earlier. Yet, they fought on and didn't really try to replace Hitler. For that matter consider Tsar Nicholas II after the debacle of the Russo-Japanese war. There was a revolt, but he and his monarchy survived it.

Some of these examples illustrate that dictators can endure serious defeats. Putin will claim "victory" and the fact it was a Pyrrhic one probably won't count against him much. If he loses the war, that MAY take him down, but even that is not "certain".

[Goose]

I don't think he is "dumb" but more like say Stalin or Hitler whose vison of the world drove them to try and create it without too much regard to whether it was possible.  At this point, Putin probably gets Ukraine, but what does he get? a destroyed country where anyone who can has already left.  I don't think Putin has enough financial resources to rebuild his own economy much less rebuild the Ukraine's  So now he is left with diminished markets for his hydrocarbons, much of his foreign bank assets seized etc. My guess is he won't survive his "victory" very long.

These dictators very much did believe it was possible. In Stalin's case, despite all the mistakes he made, it was possible. His country survived and he got control of eastern Europe. Hitler repeatedly took chances that no "sane" leader would take. He did this because he thought he understood the psychology of his opponents and because he felt he was "destined" for success. His initial successes convinced him he was correct and would succeed. His country bought into it. He came closer than he had any right to expect given his initial starting point.

Putin expected a 3 day war with "quick" success. Most of the world expected the same. Obviously that wasn't an irrational expectation given how common it was. When that didn't happen, mostly due to Russian incompetence and somewhat due to fierce Ukrainian resistance, Putin undoubtedly found himself in the position of the German generals after the UK and France held firm on their declaration of war over Poland. The question became "What now?". Putin really had no other choice, and I suspect his generals assured him that it would still all be over "soon".

Obviously I agree that starting a war to capture Ukraine, even a 3 day one, was foolish. Best case Putin would have been faced with a guerilla war in a desperately poor country. It actually has turned out much, much worse than that for him, once again illustrating that nothing in war is "certain". One has to "make it happen", and if one can not or does not the results can be pretty bad :-).

I don't agree that Putin's days are numbered once Russia figures out what this war as cost them in money, prestige, and blood. Appeals to Russian patriotism go a long way. The "state" can declare victory and therefore it is a victory. Russians are also fatalistic, probably as a result of their history. Most important of all, the "If not Putin, who?" question remains unanswered. One only has to look at the example of Saddam Hussein or even Hitler himself. All of Germany knew the war was lost by 1945 at the latest. Most knew it earlier. Yet, they fought on and didn't really try to replace Hitler. For that matter consider Tsar Nicholas II after the debacle of the Russo-Japanese war. There was a revolt, but he and his monarchy survived it.

Some of these examples illustrate that dictators can endure serious defeats. Putin will claim "victory" and the fact it was a Pyrrhic one probably won't count against him much. If he loses the war, that MAY take him down, but even that is not "certain".