[Goose]

there are reports from Ukraine that an ICBM has been launched aggressively for the first time in history.
it is possible that said missile was not carrying a payload of any kind.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...024-11-21/

The obvious message here is that the next one contains a nuclear warhead. Part of the message is that this is an ICBM. Ukraine can't reach far enough with the weapons it has to stop such launches.

This launch doesn't tell anybody anything they didn't already know about Russia's capabilities. It was designed to indicate intentions, or at least to affect the US (and Ukraine's) analysis of Russia's intentions. To what extent it does that I do not know.

If Russia indeed is contemplating a nuclear response a great time to do it would be immediately before or after the change in administration. Our ability to develop a reasoned response near this transition time may not be all that great. Russia might believe we would be unable to respond. One would hope this has already been hashed out, but I have no idea if it has. I tend to doubt it. Russia needs to be careful with this idea, because it might elicit a response that is not at all what Russia expected. I am not thinking the US would start a nuclear war, but we might do something that would push Russia further into a corner.

[Goose]

there are reports from Ukraine that an ICBM has been launched aggressively for the first time in history.
it is possible that said missile was not carrying a payload of any kind.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...024-11-21/

The obvious message here is that the next one contains a nuclear warhead. Part of the message is that this is an ICBM. Ukraine can't reach far enough with the weapons it has to stop such launches.

This launch doesn't tell anybody anything they didn't already know about Russia's capabilities. It was designed to indicate intentions, or at least to affect the US (and Ukraine's) analysis of Russia's intentions. To what extent it does that I do not know.

If Russia indeed is contemplating a nuclear response a great time to do it would be immediately before or after the change in administration. Our ability to develop a reasoned response near this transition time may not be all that great. Russia might believe we would be unable to respond. One would hope this has already been hashed out, but I have no idea if it has. I tend to doubt it. Russia needs to be careful with this idea, because it might elicit a response that is not at all what Russia expected. I am not thinking the US would start a nuclear war, but we might do something that would push Russia further into a corner.