[Goose]

With Crimea, Russia populated it with Russian emigres, many with links to the security apparatus, as a reward and also to have "reliable" types living there.

True. This approach was possible because in 2014 there was no organized resistance and therefore no destruction. Crimea is also considered a "nice place to live" by Russians. Getting people to move to a nice place with free housing (from dispossessed Ukrainians) and a (at least somewhat) good job was pretty easy. There were also lots of ethnic Russians already living there so a cultural fit existed.

In most of the currently occupied Ukrainian territories none of that applies. Russia also probably doesn't have the bodies to easily repopulate the area they will receive in a peace settlement along the current line of contact. Lots of this area is agricultural and doesn't need a large population. All the urban areas are destroyed and basically uninhabitable.  Nobody will want to move there.

Perhaps the elderly stay. I presume most other Ukrainians would emigrate to other countries if Ukraine is fully conquered. I doubt that happens, but would be a very big refugee crisis if it does. They're not going to stick around to see what Russia will do with them.

You are certainly correct that most Ukrainians will at least try to emigrate if Ukraine is fully conquered. IMO that will be largely true even if a rump Ukraine exists. It is very unlikely Putin would allow such a state to join the EU, let alone NATO. Putin will want a state that is economically dependent on Russia, as Belarus is. The infrastructure of the rump state will have suffered significant damage. Ukraine was already desperately poor before the war. It will be much, much worse afterwards, given the total loss of access to the Sea of Azov and a large part of its transportation and industrial base. The future existence of the rump state will also be in doubt. It might any day suffer the fate of the rump Czechoslovakia in early 1939. Nobody would say boo if it did. I think anyone that can leave probably will.

Unfortunately I expect that if this war ends with a "rump" Ukraine (or less), much of the EU will very quickly seek various forms of accommodation with Russia. Germany wants to go back to cheap natural gas and a robust economy. There are already lots of Germans that think embracing Russia is the way to get that. It isn't, but the popular will may dictate what is done. If that happens, most everybody else will follow. Relying on the US for anything will become very unpopular. Self-reliance will be deemed too expensive. Making a deal with the devil will become the order of the day.

[Goose]

With Crimea, Russia populated it with Russian emigres, many with links to the security apparatus, as a reward and also to have "reliable" types living there.

True. This approach was possible because in 2014 there was no organized resistance and therefore no destruction. Crimea is also considered a "nice place to live" by Russians. Getting people to move to a nice place with free housing (from dispossessed Ukrainians) and a (at least somewhat) good job was pretty easy. There were also lots of ethnic Russians already living there so a cultural fit existed.

In most of the currently occupied Ukrainian territories none of that applies. Russia also probably doesn't have the bodies to easily repopulate the area they will receive in a peace settlement along the current line of contact. Lots of this area is agricultural and doesn't need a large population. All the urban areas are destroyed and basically uninhabitable.  Nobody will want to move there.

Perhaps the elderly stay. I presume most other Ukrainians would emigrate to other countries if Ukraine is fully conquered. I doubt that happens, but would be a very big refugee crisis if it does. They're not going to stick around to see what Russia will do with them.

You are certainly correct that most Ukrainians will at least try to emigrate if Ukraine is fully conquered. IMO that will be largely true even if a rump Ukraine exists. It is very unlikely Putin would allow such a state to join the EU, let alone NATO. Putin will want a state that is economically dependent on Russia, as Belarus is. The infrastructure of the rump state will have suffered significant damage. Ukraine was already desperately poor before the war. It will be much, much worse afterwards, given the total loss of access to the Sea of Azov and a large part of its transportation and industrial base. The future existence of the rump state will also be in doubt. It might any day suffer the fate of the rump Czechoslovakia in early 1939. Nobody would say boo if it did. I think anyone that can leave probably will.

Unfortunately I expect that if this war ends with a "rump" Ukraine (or less), much of the EU will very quickly seek various forms of accommodation with Russia. Germany wants to go back to cheap natural gas and a robust economy. There are already lots of Germans that think embracing Russia is the way to get that. It isn't, but the popular will may dictate what is done. If that happens, most everybody else will follow. Relying on the US for anything will become very unpopular. Self-reliance will be deemed too expensive. Making a deal with the devil will become the order of the day.