[Goose]

Generally people are policy so let's see who actually ends up appointed. There have been rumors of both pro and anti-Ukraine people for Defense, Intelligence, and State. But the only two people who we know for sure are NOT being appointed, because Trump "truth"ed it on his social media platform, are Pompeo and Haley.

Agreed. I would take solace in two points: first, the fact that incoming politicians across the board have domestic priorities front and center and Ukraine is considerably down the list and will likely be subject to internal negotiations. Second, based upon their statements, the incoming politicians learned from experience how important those internal negotiations are in getting what they want.

None of that is dispositive. I certainly hope we continue to support Ukraine and am moderately hopeful that incoming politicians will be effective in bringing about an end to the war in a way that is least harmful.

If and when the US administration decides that we will not prosecute this war to an eventual Ukrainian "victory", we have very few cards left to play. Russia is "winning" right now, and they will "win" faster when the Ukrainian populace realizes they are going to lose (at a bare minimum) all the territory Russia occupies. We can tell Putin that if he doesn't agree to a cease fire we will keep supporting Ukraine at the "current" level (more or less) Putin will just say "Fine, I am winning, I will continue to win. You have no plan to win, so you can't win. See you on the Hungarian border. I hope you enjoy taking care of the millions of sub-human Ukrainians fleeing into the EU".

Why would he say otherwise? There is the possibility that the impact of this war on Russia has been so bad he needs to "stop" ASAP, but there is little evidence that is the case. The humanitarian argument also has no traction. If it did, this war would never have been fought. There are also many political reasons why Putin doesn't want to stop short of the total capture of Ukraine. This war has made life more difficult for the average Russian. Perhaps not a lot, but some. The aftermath of this war inside Russia may actually be worse than during the war. The government will quit pouring money into the economy and a severe recession is inevitable. Putin would have a hard time selling the idea that all this fighting was worth the cost to Russia in blood and treasure if the "Nazi" Ukrainian regime still exists. It is much easier to declare victory if you really have a victory, no asterisks attached.

It is always possible Putin will not behave as I have suggested. His reasoning is often hard to understand, possibly because we don't have his "perspective" (warped or otherwise). However, I bet heavily against such an outcome. Putin may temporize, negotiating while still advancing. IMO he will instead go "hard line" initially to see if the west folds immediately and gives him Ukraine either directly through negotiations or indirectly by stopping aid. He isn't worried that "the west" will massively step up aid and remove restrictions on weapons use because he is virtually certain we do not have the political will to do that. Succeeding in such an approach would also deliver him a badly needed international and domestic boost in prestige. This is for the US a "worst case" scenario, and it is within his grasp. It would also put him as the "alpha dog" with respect to the US administration, another significant "win". Hard to see him backing down now.

[Goose]

Generally people are policy so let's see who actually ends up appointed. There have been rumors of both pro and anti-Ukraine people for Defense, Intelligence, and State. But the only two people who we know for sure are NOT being appointed, because Trump "truth"ed it on his social media platform, are Pompeo and Haley.

Agreed. I would take solace in two points: first, the fact that incoming politicians across the board have domestic priorities front and center and Ukraine is considerably down the list and will likely be subject to internal negotiations. Second, based upon their statements, the incoming politicians learned from experience how important those internal negotiations are in getting what they want.

None of that is dispositive. I certainly hope we continue to support Ukraine and am moderately hopeful that incoming politicians will be effective in bringing about an end to the war in a way that is least harmful.

If and when the US administration decides that we will not prosecute this war to an eventual Ukrainian "victory", we have very few cards left to play. Russia is "winning" right now, and they will "win" faster when the Ukrainian populace realizes they are going to lose (at a bare minimum) all the territory Russia occupies. We can tell Putin that if he doesn't agree to a cease fire we will keep supporting Ukraine at the "current" level (more or less) Putin will just say "Fine, I am winning, I will continue to win. You have no plan to win, so you can't win. See you on the Hungarian border. I hope you enjoy taking care of the millions of sub-human Ukrainians fleeing into the EU".

Why would he say otherwise? There is the possibility that the impact of this war on Russia has been so bad he needs to "stop" ASAP, but there is little evidence that is the case. The humanitarian argument also has no traction. If it did, this war would never have been fought. There are also many political reasons why Putin doesn't want to stop short of the total capture of Ukraine. This war has made life more difficult for the average Russian. Perhaps not a lot, but some. The aftermath of this war inside Russia may actually be worse than during the war. The government will quit pouring money into the economy and a severe recession is inevitable. Putin would have a hard time selling the idea that all this fighting was worth the cost to Russia in blood and treasure if the "Nazi" Ukrainian regime still exists. It is much easier to declare victory if you really have a victory, no asterisks attached.

It is always possible Putin will not behave as I have suggested. His reasoning is often hard to understand, possibly because we don't have his "perspective" (warped or otherwise). However, I bet heavily against such an outcome. Putin may temporize, negotiating while still advancing. IMO he will instead go "hard line" initially to see if the west folds immediately and gives him Ukraine either directly through negotiations or indirectly by stopping aid. He isn't worried that "the west" will massively step up aid and remove restrictions on weapons use because he is virtually certain we do not have the political will to do that. Succeeding in such an approach would also deliver him a badly needed international and domestic boost in prestige. This is for the US a "worst case" scenario, and it is within his grasp. It would also put him as the "alpha dog" with respect to the US administration, another significant "win". Hard to see him backing down now.