[Goose]

My guess is the peace plan will entail Ukraine ceding all territory presently held by Russia, returning any part of Kursk that is still occupied, a block on any accession to NATO (how relevant NATO will be is still very TBD, might become a Europe only thing soon). Doubt there will be appetite to send Ukraine any money or much more arms. Probably Russia will get sanctions relief and unfrozen assets as well.

Doubtful Europe will be able to influence anything, it will all be personalist negotiations.

It would be a recipe for renewed hostility after Russia can rearm, but Ukraine may not have a choice if the US stops aid.

That might be the optimistic view :-(. IMO Putin isn't going to accept even that. He doesn't have to. Ukraine without US support will collapse in short order if Russia keeps attacking. Putin knows that, so why give up anything? Take the whole works. He can make "the west", particularly the US grovel and then say "Nope". Zelenskyy isn't going to quit fighting, even if it is hopeless. He will have to either quit or be killed. His army is already over-matched in Donbas. When the infantry finds out they will no longer get artillery ammunition from the US, they will begin to melt away. They may do so anyway when it becomes clear negotiations will result in any more deaths being in vain.

Hopefully the US will be smart enough to continue full support to Ukraine while these negotiations play out. If we don't do that, it is indeed "game over". Russia firmly believes (with reason) it is negotiating from a position of overwhelming strength. If we confirm we believe that too we then have no negotiating position but surrender. Just maybe that argument will be accepted and be incorporated into our strategy.

One late, small bright spot- Biden administration now allowing US military contractors to go to Ukraine for repair and sustainment purposes. Will be away from the front lines. Will be helpful for maintenance of F16s for the next two months until the new administration makes their own decisions.

Perhaps a few of them might have to do some "test flights" and ensure the weapons systems work by repeated tests :-). One has to take solace where one can.

[Goose]

My guess is the peace plan will entail Ukraine ceding all territory presently held by Russia, returning any part of Kursk that is still occupied, a block on any accession to NATO (how relevant NATO will be is still very TBD, might become a Europe only thing soon). Doubt there will be appetite to send Ukraine any money or much more arms. Probably Russia will get sanctions relief and unfrozen assets as well.

Doubtful Europe will be able to influence anything, it will all be personalist negotiations.

It would be a recipe for renewed hostility after Russia can rearm, but Ukraine may not have a choice if the US stops aid.

That might be the optimistic view :-(. IMO Putin isn't going to accept even that. He doesn't have to. Ukraine without US support will collapse in short order if Russia keeps attacking. Putin knows that, so why give up anything? Take the whole works. He can make "the west", particularly the US grovel and then say "Nope". Zelenskyy isn't going to quit fighting, even if it is hopeless. He will have to either quit or be killed. His army is already over-matched in Donbas. When the infantry finds out they will no longer get artillery ammunition from the US, they will begin to melt away. They may do so anyway when it becomes clear negotiations will result in any more deaths being in vain.

Hopefully the US will be smart enough to continue full support to Ukraine while these negotiations play out. If we don't do that, it is indeed "game over". Russia firmly believes (with reason) it is negotiating from a position of overwhelming strength. If we confirm we believe that too we then have no negotiating position but surrender. Just maybe that argument will be accepted and be incorporated into our strategy.

One late, small bright spot- Biden administration now allowing US military contractors to go to Ukraine for repair and sustainment purposes. Will be away from the front lines. Will be helpful for maintenance of F16s for the next two months until the new administration makes their own decisions.

Perhaps a few of them might have to do some "test flights" and ensure the weapons systems work by repeated tests :-). One has to take solace where one can.