[Goose]

i am much more concerned about Ukraine's fate than i was a couple days ago.  it would be nice if Biden could transfer more weapons there in the coming weeks, but that may be difficult.

It also won't matter all that much. Ukraine needs, at an absolute minimum, a steady supply of 155 mm shells that place them at no worse than a 3:1 daily usage disadvantage WRT Russia. Without that, they will lose. If the US is supplying shells along with the EU it is barely possible to maintain that ratio. Without the US, it is not. Ukraine also needs a reliable supply of Patriot missiles. Europe can supply some, but it seems improbable they can match current levels. Eventually Ukraine runs out. At that point Russia can pound away at will. Morale wise, that is a disaster. Ukraine also needs ATACMS and other missiles for their HIMARS. Lots of those need to come from the US.

There are lots of "other things", like HARMs and JDAMS that Ukraine needs. Ukraine probably has some stocks of various munitions, but as these stocks are depleted, Ukraine loses the ability to effectively resist. We saw this last spring and it would be no better this spring. The difference was that eventually the logjam was broken. It that had not happened, it is IMO unlikely Ukraine would still be fighting.

[Goose]

i am much more concerned about Ukraine's fate than i was a couple days ago.  it would be nice if Biden could transfer more weapons there in the coming weeks, but that may be difficult.

It also won't matter all that much. Ukraine needs, at an absolute minimum, a steady supply of 155 mm shells that place them at no worse than a 3:1 daily usage disadvantage WRT Russia. Without that, they will lose. If the US is supplying shells along with the EU it is barely possible to maintain that ratio. Without the US, it is not. Ukraine also needs a reliable supply of Patriot missiles. Europe can supply some, but it seems improbable they can match current levels. Eventually Ukraine runs out. At that point Russia can pound away at will. Morale wise, that is a disaster. Ukraine also needs ATACMS and other missiles for their HIMARS. Lots of those need to come from the US.

There are lots of "other things", like HARMs and JDAMS that Ukraine needs. Ukraine probably has some stocks of various munitions, but as these stocks are depleted, Ukraine loses the ability to effectively resist. We saw this last spring and it would be no better this spring. The difference was that eventually the logjam was broken. It that had not happened, it is IMO unlikely Ukraine would still be fighting.