[Goose]

I wonder what kind of deal the Ukrainians can negotiate from their position of weakness.

Probably none. Putin has no reason (yet) to assume he can't totally occupy Ukraine relatively soon. He isn't going to give up on that idea unless/until he totally fails in that attempt. Putin also faces the problem of what happens after "victory". Will Russia actually be better off economically once they occupy Ukraine than they were before the war? Certainly not in the short term.

How the EU decides to handle the situation is IMO key to Russia's near-term economic health. An occupied Ukraine will be in dire need of reconstruction and economic assistance. Russia can't afford either right now. The EU may attempt to buy "peace" from Russia by agreeing to assist Russia in rebuilding Ukraine. Such an action would have clear "humanitarian" benefits and perhaps could  be politically "sold" as that. The EU also has to decide if they will return to their pre-war economic relationship with Russia.

Of course, all of this is speculation because none of us know what US policy will actually be going forward. IMO almost anything is possible.

[Goose]

I wonder what kind of deal the Ukrainians can negotiate from their position of weakness.

Probably none. Putin has no reason (yet) to assume he can't totally occupy Ukraine relatively soon. He isn't going to give up on that idea unless/until he totally fails in that attempt. Putin also faces the problem of what happens after "victory". Will Russia actually be better off economically once they occupy Ukraine than they were before the war? Certainly not in the short term.

How the EU decides to handle the situation is IMO key to Russia's near-term economic health. An occupied Ukraine will be in dire need of reconstruction and economic assistance. Russia can't afford either right now. The EU may attempt to buy "peace" from Russia by agreeing to assist Russia in rebuilding Ukraine. Such an action would have clear "humanitarian" benefits and perhaps could  be politically "sold" as that. The EU also has to decide if they will return to their pre-war economic relationship with Russia.

Of course, all of this is speculation because none of us know what US policy will actually be going forward. IMO almost anything is possible.