10-29-2024, 03:59 PM
Updating the results of the Israeli air strikes on Iran:
Apparently Israel destroyed four S-300 "systems". It seem probable the Israelis destroyed the early warning/acquisition radars and many of the target tracking radars. They additionally destroyed the command-and-control units. The TELs themselves probably were not separately targeted, though several were probably destroyed as collateral damage. It turns out Iran only had four of these S-300 systems. I had erroneously believed several additional systems were supplied after the original 2016 deliveries. That means Iran has no operational S-300s remaining.
This situation illustrates the inherent futility of an air defense system based entirely in SAMs. The S-300 is a capable SAM system. It has long range missiles that can strike aircraft at great distances and altitudes. Like all SAM systems it can only hit what it can see and what its missiles can see. The S-300 cannot see F-35Is unless they are "very close" to the tracking radars. The missiles probably can't see the F-35Is at all unless they happen to accidentally run into one.
Putting aside the F-35Is with their stealth capability, the Israeli F-16s carried cruise missiles that can fly "nap of the earth" strikes against fixed targets located hundreds of miles away. These missiles are equipped (as are SCALP/Storm Shadow) with infrared target recognition terminal guidance, so INS steering is adequate to get them "close enough". The S-300 can detect these very low altitude targets only when the missiles are "very close", something like 14 nautical miles. The S-300 has about a minute and 20 seconds to shoot down the target. The time to acquire, develop a "firing solution", launch the missile plus the required turning radius of the vertically launched S-300 SAMs probably makes killing the inbound missile impossible. It would certainly require operating the S-300 in "full auto" mode and using a search strategy that gave high priority to low altitude targets. If there are several missiles inbound it is virtually certain the S-300 will fail to defend itself, even if everything went "right".
Now consider that in order to defend your country you will need S-300 batteries quite close together. Iran had a total of four. Hopeless task. If these batteries are more than say 35 miles apart cruse missiles can fly right between them. OK, you don't use S-300s for that job. You use lots of cheaper SHORAD systems to hit them. Fine, but you still need such systems every 35 miles around the entire country. Otherwise your system "leaks". Alternatively, you can use an AWACS and a number of "F-16 equivalent" interceptors that can "look down" upon low altitude targets. Lots cheaper. The interceptors don't need to be "everywhere" because the AWACS can see the cruise missiles at longer ranges and send them to intercept at quite high speed. In short, you need an air force. Without it you are doomed. You can't possibly build enough SHORAD/SAM capability to defend your country by themselves. Having some SHORAD around to defend some critical point targets against "leakers" is a "good thing". Having SAMs with an ABM capability is a necessary thing. Ballistic missiles, even depressed trajectory shots are relatively easy to "see" by both ground based and space-based radars. It still isn't cheap, but it can be done.
Apparently Israel destroyed four S-300 "systems". It seem probable the Israelis destroyed the early warning/acquisition radars and many of the target tracking radars. They additionally destroyed the command-and-control units. The TELs themselves probably were not separately targeted, though several were probably destroyed as collateral damage. It turns out Iran only had four of these S-300 systems. I had erroneously believed several additional systems were supplied after the original 2016 deliveries. That means Iran has no operational S-300s remaining.
This situation illustrates the inherent futility of an air defense system based entirely in SAMs. The S-300 is a capable SAM system. It has long range missiles that can strike aircraft at great distances and altitudes. Like all SAM systems it can only hit what it can see and what its missiles can see. The S-300 cannot see F-35Is unless they are "very close" to the tracking radars. The missiles probably can't see the F-35Is at all unless they happen to accidentally run into one.
Putting aside the F-35Is with their stealth capability, the Israeli F-16s carried cruise missiles that can fly "nap of the earth" strikes against fixed targets located hundreds of miles away. These missiles are equipped (as are SCALP/Storm Shadow) with infrared target recognition terminal guidance, so INS steering is adequate to get them "close enough". The S-300 can detect these very low altitude targets only when the missiles are "very close", something like 14 nautical miles. The S-300 has about a minute and 20 seconds to shoot down the target. The time to acquire, develop a "firing solution", launch the missile plus the required turning radius of the vertically launched S-300 SAMs probably makes killing the inbound missile impossible. It would certainly require operating the S-300 in "full auto" mode and using a search strategy that gave high priority to low altitude targets. If there are several missiles inbound it is virtually certain the S-300 will fail to defend itself, even if everything went "right".
Now consider that in order to defend your country you will need S-300 batteries quite close together. Iran had a total of four. Hopeless task. If these batteries are more than say 35 miles apart cruse missiles can fly right between them. OK, you don't use S-300s for that job. You use lots of cheaper SHORAD systems to hit them. Fine, but you still need such systems every 35 miles around the entire country. Otherwise your system "leaks". Alternatively, you can use an AWACS and a number of "F-16 equivalent" interceptors that can "look down" upon low altitude targets. Lots cheaper. The interceptors don't need to be "everywhere" because the AWACS can see the cruise missiles at longer ranges and send them to intercept at quite high speed. In short, you need an air force. Without it you are doomed. You can't possibly build enough SHORAD/SAM capability to defend your country by themselves. Having some SHORAD around to defend some critical point targets against "leakers" is a "good thing". Having SAMs with an ABM capability is a necessary thing. Ballistic missiles, even depressed trajectory shots are relatively easy to "see" by both ground based and space-based radars. It still isn't cheap, but it can be done.