[GK3]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/outgunned-out...19731.html

This article is definitely a "downer" but it does IMO point out facts and issues that often don't make it into the headlines. Obviously Ukraine has no desire to fuel concerns about their situation. However, these are real issues. It doesn't mean Ukraine is going to cave in tomorrow and none of the people interviewed wanted that or expected that to happen. The morale problems are real. The problems with the conscript soldiers are real. Despite the fact the article only discusses ammunition shortages due to delays in US aid, even in the presence of that aid Ukraine is still at an anywhere between 3:1 (best case) and 10:1 disadvantage relative to Russia. That isn't going to change in the near future if ever. The plan for victory must understand and include this fact. Above all, there must be a plan for victory.

I think the Yahoo article is probably more negative than reality, but it isn't far away. The fact that we (USA) are so reticent to allow them to use the weapons we provide in a manner that they need, makes those weapons far less valuable. As a result, Ukraine has done a very good job under the circumstances of making their own versions of the weapons, even cruise missles, long range drones, and now equipping old russian era bombs with wings and the ability to glide to their targets. FWLIW I think if we really want Ukraine to win or at least achieve an adequate peace treaty, we need to stop all this mickey mousing around and give them what they need.  There is the old adage, "pay me now, or pay me later"
Of course, Western Europe and the USA has to consider how far Putin will go in an effort to win. Mostly, is he willing to actually use nuclear weapons of any type to "win"?
If the West allows Putin to absorb the Ukraine, what comes next?  Poland, the Baltic States?  The best answer to this conundrum is best left unsaid.

[GK3]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/outgunned-out...19731.html

This article is definitely a "downer" but it does IMO point out facts and issues that often don't make it into the headlines. Obviously Ukraine has no desire to fuel concerns about their situation. However, these are real issues. It doesn't mean Ukraine is going to cave in tomorrow and none of the people interviewed wanted that or expected that to happen. The morale problems are real. The problems with the conscript soldiers are real. Despite the fact the article only discusses ammunition shortages due to delays in US aid, even in the presence of that aid Ukraine is still at an anywhere between 3:1 (best case) and 10:1 disadvantage relative to Russia. That isn't going to change in the near future if ever. The plan for victory must understand and include this fact. Above all, there must be a plan for victory.

I think the Yahoo article is probably more negative than reality, but it isn't far away. The fact that we (USA) are so reticent to allow them to use the weapons we provide in a manner that they need, makes those weapons far less valuable. As a result, Ukraine has done a very good job under the circumstances of making their own versions of the weapons, even cruise missles, long range drones, and now equipping old russian era bombs with wings and the ability to glide to their targets. FWLIW I think if we really want Ukraine to win or at least achieve an adequate peace treaty, we need to stop all this mickey mousing around and give them what they need.  There is the old adage, "pay me now, or pay me later"
Of course, Western Europe and the USA has to consider how far Putin will go in an effort to win. Mostly, is he willing to actually use nuclear weapons of any type to "win"?
If the West allows Putin to absorb the Ukraine, what comes next?  Poland, the Baltic States?  The best answer to this conundrum is best left unsaid.