[Goose]

The Ukrainian people have suffered for over two years and still strongly support continuing to fight. I don't think that would change in another year or two or three or four or five or ten, as long as Ukraine holds the majority of their territory, which is likely in my estimation if the West continues to support them.

I agree the Ukrainian people want to fight on, at least at this point. What happens going forward is IMO a guessing game. While public opinion in Ukraine says "fight" the difficulties in passing a relatively "weak" (by US standards) draft bill were large and it took forever. There hasn't been a flood of new troops and training has been difficult. Ukraine has to create a fighting force that can match their fighting desires. So far, they have not. It can be argued the attack into Russia shows they are getting closer. However events in the Donbas indicates the opposite.

Ukraine is also having to come to grips with the fact they will always be at a massive artillery disadvantage with respect to Russia. The Europeans have promised numbers they can't yet deliver and have never lived up to their words. They can't. They don't have the capacity and aren't building enough capacity to give Ukraine parity when it is all finished (years from now). The US has done our best. We have never promised more than we could deliver. However, what we can deliver even with our programs to increase capacity is not nearly enough. Russia is out-producing Ukraine's sponsors by at least 3:1. No reason to believe that can't continue indefinitely. We gave Russia time to react and mobilize their productive capacity. This is one of the costs. Getting soldiers to fight under such conditions with no end in sight is impossible, no matter how motivated they are.

Obviously events do matter. If Ukraine manages to stop Russia more or less where they are today it will help a lot. If OTOH Ukraine loses the rest of the Donbas IMO it will be an immense hit both on Ukrainian morale and an even bigger one on "Western" support. I don't know what Ukraine is thinking but they do not seem to be defending as stoutly against Russian attacks as in the past. Ukraine is still killing lots of Russians but they are surrendering space. The incursion into Russia apparently hasn't dented the Russian plans much. Russia may just choose to contain the situation and nothing more. 

If Russia captures all of Donbas (or close enough for Putin's purposes) I fear Russia will offer a cease-fire and agree to negotiations. This will put Ukraine in an impossible situation. Much of the "West" wants this war to end and they don't much care what the final configuration is as long as they can claim that Ukraine was not "defeated". Ukraine will not get into NATO as a result of any agreement reached to end the war with Russia still holding lots of Ukraine. Ukraine knows and lots of the West knows such a "freeze" in the war is only a pause. Czechoslovakia all over again.

OTOH it would be politically very difficult for Ukraine to accept such a partition. Practically speaking  when Russia comes for the rest of Ukraine in a year or so, Ukraine won't fight very effectively. The people will have seen this movie before and know how it ends. So will have the "west" and this time they won't offer help for what they believe to be a lost cause.

Where you and I differ here, I think, is that you believe Ukraine's strong desire to fight against Russia can overcome a continually worsening correlation of forces without any reasonable path to victory in sight. I do not. There aren't any real similar historical precedents that apply. The closest parallel might be France in WW II but it isn't really a "good match". That said, France did surrender to the "historical foe" where clear means of resistance remained available. Vichy made a deal with the Devil. The Devil eventually (and predictably) reneged.  I am hoping we don't have to find out who is right here. If Ukraine and "the West" can put together a reasonable plan that will inflict damage upon Russia (militarily, economically, and politically) that Russia simply cannot bear, that changes everything. If that doesn't happen, we will find out who is right.

[Goose]

The Ukrainian people have suffered for over two years and still strongly support continuing to fight. I don't think that would change in another year or two or three or four or five or ten, as long as Ukraine holds the majority of their territory, which is likely in my estimation if the West continues to support them.

I agree the Ukrainian people want to fight on, at least at this point. What happens going forward is IMO a guessing game. While public opinion in Ukraine says "fight" the difficulties in passing a relatively "weak" (by US standards) draft bill were large and it took forever. There hasn't been a flood of new troops and training has been difficult. Ukraine has to create a fighting force that can match their fighting desires. So far, they have not. It can be argued the attack into Russia shows they are getting closer. However events in the Donbas indicates the opposite.

Ukraine is also having to come to grips with the fact they will always be at a massive artillery disadvantage with respect to Russia. The Europeans have promised numbers they can't yet deliver and have never lived up to their words. They can't. They don't have the capacity and aren't building enough capacity to give Ukraine parity when it is all finished (years from now). The US has done our best. We have never promised more than we could deliver. However, what we can deliver even with our programs to increase capacity is not nearly enough. Russia is out-producing Ukraine's sponsors by at least 3:1. No reason to believe that can't continue indefinitely. We gave Russia time to react and mobilize their productive capacity. This is one of the costs. Getting soldiers to fight under such conditions with no end in sight is impossible, no matter how motivated they are.

Obviously events do matter. If Ukraine manages to stop Russia more or less where they are today it will help a lot. If OTOH Ukraine loses the rest of the Donbas IMO it will be an immense hit both on Ukrainian morale and an even bigger one on "Western" support. I don't know what Ukraine is thinking but they do not seem to be defending as stoutly against Russian attacks as in the past. Ukraine is still killing lots of Russians but they are surrendering space. The incursion into Russia apparently hasn't dented the Russian plans much. Russia may just choose to contain the situation and nothing more. 

If Russia captures all of Donbas (or close enough for Putin's purposes) I fear Russia will offer a cease-fire and agree to negotiations. This will put Ukraine in an impossible situation. Much of the "West" wants this war to end and they don't much care what the final configuration is as long as they can claim that Ukraine was not "defeated". Ukraine will not get into NATO as a result of any agreement reached to end the war with Russia still holding lots of Ukraine. Ukraine knows and lots of the West knows such a "freeze" in the war is only a pause. Czechoslovakia all over again.

OTOH it would be politically very difficult for Ukraine to accept such a partition. Practically speaking  when Russia comes for the rest of Ukraine in a year or so, Ukraine won't fight very effectively. The people will have seen this movie before and know how it ends. So will have the "west" and this time they won't offer help for what they believe to be a lost cause.

Where you and I differ here, I think, is that you believe Ukraine's strong desire to fight against Russia can overcome a continually worsening correlation of forces without any reasonable path to victory in sight. I do not. There aren't any real similar historical precedents that apply. The closest parallel might be France in WW II but it isn't really a "good match". That said, France did surrender to the "historical foe" where clear means of resistance remained available. Vichy made a deal with the Devil. The Devil eventually (and predictably) reneged.  I am hoping we don't have to find out who is right here. If Ukraine and "the West" can put together a reasonable plan that will inflict damage upon Russia (militarily, economically, and politically) that Russia simply cannot bear, that changes everything. If that doesn't happen, we will find out who is right.