[Goose]

https://x.com/defmon3/status/1829196136051036554?s=46

I am always a bit hesitant to post stuff like this because you never know how widespread it is, but given the situation on the ground, where Russia has been making slow but steady gains in the East and now is seriously threatening Pokrovsk, which is strategically important as a logistical hub for Ukraine, I find this and other comments like it to be credible. I wish the situation were better, and I can only hope that Russia’s relative inability to take advantage with a big breakthrough is that they are just as exhausted as the Ukrainians, but I think it is just lack of initiative. I am hoping that something can at least stabilize the front and halt Russian advances, but the news is leaving me increasingly pessimistic.

BC

IMO it is important to "face the facts". It is often true that the troops in the field do not "understand the big picture" and are affected greatly by their local situation. That said, the repeated backward movement of the Ukrainian military in Donbas cannot be denied or ignored. The other thing that cannot be ignored is that Ukraine does not have enough 155 mm ammunition to match Russia's rate of expenditure of similar munitions. This is not because the US is holding back. That is over. The EU contribution also fell well short of what was promised. Even if it were as promised, Russia has many, many more 153 mm tubes and much more ammunition than Ukraine does. That isn't going to change.

The comments about the effectiveness of the newly "trained" Ukrainians is disturbing but quite possibly a reflection of unit solidarity. The US has had similar reports in every war. They were largely untrue. What is true is that their is no substitute for combat experience, particularly in the infantry. "New Guys" historically die at a much greater rate than "veterans". Training is valuable but cannot actually deliver the full lessons of staying alive in combat. Soldiers have to adapt and many of them don't live long enough to do so.

This situation IMO reflects a lack of understanding from day 1 by the US and NATO of the correlation of forces that would apply to a long war. Ukraine can't win a long war. Ukraine basically knew that from the start but didn't want to tell everybody that because the US and NATO may not have supported them if they "knew". NATO and the US either didn't know or didn't want to face that fact. In any case, there is no plan to win in place today. Lacking that, eventual defeat is inevitable baring some "black swan" that makes Russia give up. The troops know this, and how long their morale will hold up is questionable.

---

F-16 pilot was confirmed to have been killed.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/29/europe/uk...index.html

BC

Very unfortunate, especially given it was a very "involved" aviator. Stuff happens. Ukraine is saying it wasn't pilot error. We may never know what happened. That said, it isn't all that rare that aircraft are lost, especially by inexperienced pilots. It could have been due to an aircraft fault of some kind. There are also lots of inexperienced support troops involved too. This event, while "bad", shouldn't IMO lead to despair.

[Goose]

https://x.com/defmon3/status/1829196136051036554?s=46

I am always a bit hesitant to post stuff like this because you never know how widespread it is, but given the situation on the ground, where Russia has been making slow but steady gains in the East and now is seriously threatening Pokrovsk, which is strategically important as a logistical hub for Ukraine, I find this and other comments like it to be credible. I wish the situation were better, and I can only hope that Russia’s relative inability to take advantage with a big breakthrough is that they are just as exhausted as the Ukrainians, but I think it is just lack of initiative. I am hoping that something can at least stabilize the front and halt Russian advances, but the news is leaving me increasingly pessimistic.

BC

IMO it is important to "face the facts". It is often true that the troops in the field do not "understand the big picture" and are affected greatly by their local situation. That said, the repeated backward movement of the Ukrainian military in Donbas cannot be denied or ignored. The other thing that cannot be ignored is that Ukraine does not have enough 155 mm ammunition to match Russia's rate of expenditure of similar munitions. This is not because the US is holding back. That is over. The EU contribution also fell well short of what was promised. Even if it were as promised, Russia has many, many more 153 mm tubes and much more ammunition than Ukraine does. That isn't going to change.

The comments about the effectiveness of the newly "trained" Ukrainians is disturbing but quite possibly a reflection of unit solidarity. The US has had similar reports in every war. They were largely untrue. What is true is that their is no substitute for combat experience, particularly in the infantry. "New Guys" historically die at a much greater rate than "veterans". Training is valuable but cannot actually deliver the full lessons of staying alive in combat. Soldiers have to adapt and many of them don't live long enough to do so.

This situation IMO reflects a lack of understanding from day 1 by the US and NATO of the correlation of forces that would apply to a long war. Ukraine can't win a long war. Ukraine basically knew that from the start but didn't want to tell everybody that because the US and NATO may not have supported them if they "knew". NATO and the US either didn't know or didn't want to face that fact. In any case, there is no plan to win in place today. Lacking that, eventual defeat is inevitable baring some "black swan" that makes Russia give up. The troops know this, and how long their morale will hold up is questionable.

---

F-16 pilot was confirmed to have been killed.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/29/europe/uk...index.html

BC

Very unfortunate, especially given it was a very "involved" aviator. Stuff happens. Ukraine is saying it wasn't pilot error. We may never know what happened. That said, it isn't all that rare that aircraft are lost, especially by inexperienced pilots. It could have been due to an aircraft fault of some kind. There are also lots of inexperienced support troops involved too. This event, while "bad", shouldn't IMO lead to despair.