[Goose]

I have my doubts that Russian troops are trapped. The maps all show plenty of escape routes for individuals on foot. It’s just that Ukraine blew the bridges needed to get the equipment out with the troops. Of course Ukraine would be thrilled to get 2k POWs, but just capturing the land and equipment still would be nice.

Indeed capturing the land will be nice. The main reason the bridges were blown was to prevent reinforcements and supplies from entering the area. Obviously there are places where individuals can swim the river. It is a big enough river that I doubt it is fordable in many places, if any. However, experience has shown that "every man for himself" evacuations have extremely high attrition.

First, you have to get to the river. The area is forested so if you stay in the forest you are hard to see. However you have to navigate to the river avoiding open areas, roads, and obstacles that are difficult to cross. These you must go around.  Most of the conscripts and plenty of the veterans do not have the skills required to do that, and they know it. Presumably they are carrying what food they can and drinking water. Lots of them will get lost. If they do get to the river they have to get across it. Hard to do in full kit, so you must leave all your "stuff" behind. There isn't a welcoming committee waiting on the other side so you then have to find "help" carrying nothing but yourself.  The vast majority of the troops aren't great swimmers and either won't attempt it or will drown trying. The alternative of surrendering looks pretty good if these are your options.

Of course, if I am incorrect and the river is easily fordable it is a lot less daunting task. Russia is putting up pontoon bridges (that Ukraine destroys) but that may be because Russia needs vehicles (particularly trucks) to get across.

On top of all this you have Ukrainians looking for concentrations of Russian troops. Most troops, particularly the untrained ones, have no concept of an E&E operation at all. Spetsnaz units can split up and do so, but I doubt there are many such in this previously quiet area. Retreating troops need to be led by someone who does understand E&E. Unfortunately for Russia, their officers have an annoying habit of running away and leaving their troops behind. Most units with no leader tend to remain together. They feel safer in groups. Of course, these units can't move faster than their slowest elements. That makes Ukraine's ability to find them much greater. Finding two guys in the forest is a needle in a haystack. Even if you do find them using a IR drone it probably isn't worth sending a bunch of troops after them. A company or even a platoon is another matter. If such a unit does make it to the river, they will be out in the open when attempting to cross. Artillery fire can really tear them up. The reality is that these leaderless units tend to stick to the roads. That may be the only way out they know. Not hard to find at all.

Russia executed a very well planned retreat from Kherson City. The got basically everyone out in one night. The Ukrainians let them. The bridge was not destroyed and when it became clear a retreat was in progress the Ukrainians did not press.  Capturing Russians was not a priority. This time, the Russians who will be retreating are not concentrated. That will be a two edged sword. However, if they are "pressed" it should net a lot of prisoners. IMO what Ukraine nets will say a lot about the relative ability and skill of both forces. Lots of POWs sends a big message to both sides. Ukraine is already "talking up" their POW numbers. Adding a thousand or (preferably) more in a short period will make boasting unnecessary. The raw numbers will do the talking.

[Goose]

I have my doubts that Russian troops are trapped. The maps all show plenty of escape routes for individuals on foot. It’s just that Ukraine blew the bridges needed to get the equipment out with the troops. Of course Ukraine would be thrilled to get 2k POWs, but just capturing the land and equipment still would be nice.

Indeed capturing the land will be nice. The main reason the bridges were blown was to prevent reinforcements and supplies from entering the area. Obviously there are places where individuals can swim the river. It is a big enough river that I doubt it is fordable in many places, if any. However, experience has shown that "every man for himself" evacuations have extremely high attrition.

First, you have to get to the river. The area is forested so if you stay in the forest you are hard to see. However you have to navigate to the river avoiding open areas, roads, and obstacles that are difficult to cross. These you must go around.  Most of the conscripts and plenty of the veterans do not have the skills required to do that, and they know it. Presumably they are carrying what food they can and drinking water. Lots of them will get lost. If they do get to the river they have to get across it. Hard to do in full kit, so you must leave all your "stuff" behind. There isn't a welcoming committee waiting on the other side so you then have to find "help" carrying nothing but yourself.  The vast majority of the troops aren't great swimmers and either won't attempt it or will drown trying. The alternative of surrendering looks pretty good if these are your options.

Of course, if I am incorrect and the river is easily fordable it is a lot less daunting task. Russia is putting up pontoon bridges (that Ukraine destroys) but that may be because Russia needs vehicles (particularly trucks) to get across.

On top of all this you have Ukrainians looking for concentrations of Russian troops. Most troops, particularly the untrained ones, have no concept of an E&E operation at all. Spetsnaz units can split up and do so, but I doubt there are many such in this previously quiet area. Retreating troops need to be led by someone who does understand E&E. Unfortunately for Russia, their officers have an annoying habit of running away and leaving their troops behind. Most units with no leader tend to remain together. They feel safer in groups. Of course, these units can't move faster than their slowest elements. That makes Ukraine's ability to find them much greater. Finding two guys in the forest is a needle in a haystack. Even if you do find them using a IR drone it probably isn't worth sending a bunch of troops after them. A company or even a platoon is another matter. If such a unit does make it to the river, they will be out in the open when attempting to cross. Artillery fire can really tear them up. The reality is that these leaderless units tend to stick to the roads. That may be the only way out they know. Not hard to find at all.

Russia executed a very well planned retreat from Kherson City. The got basically everyone out in one night. The Ukrainians let them. The bridge was not destroyed and when it became clear a retreat was in progress the Ukrainians did not press.  Capturing Russians was not a priority. This time, the Russians who will be retreating are not concentrated. That will be a two edged sword. However, if they are "pressed" it should net a lot of prisoners. IMO what Ukraine nets will say a lot about the relative ability and skill of both forces. Lots of POWs sends a big message to both sides. Ukraine is already "talking up" their POW numbers. Adding a thousand or (preferably) more in a short period will make boasting unnecessary. The raw numbers will do the talking.