[gocard14]

The other issue is that no one trusts Putin to honor any peace treaty with Ukraine, so the best a deal that cedes the Donbas to Russia in exchange for peace does is pause hostilities.  Maybe Ukraine needs that after two and a half years of continual war, and maybe Russia's methodical advancing means that Ukraine will have no choice but to sue for peace and hope that something else will intervene and prevent Putin from resuming hostilities, but let's not kid ourselves, a peace treaty with Russia is not worth the paper it is printed on.

Totally agree. IMO it would also be difficult to govern Ukraine in that scenario. Many different factions would arise with different reads on whether to re-unify with Russia, work with Russia, and/or join the EU / NATO. Joining NATO might be enough to keep Russia from attacking again, but would NATO allow Ukraine to join and if so would they honor Article 5 if Russia attacked? Russia will surely attempt political interference in the rump Ukraine even if they aren't (yet) attacking. Difficult to see this ending well, but as BC says Ukraine may feel they have no choice.

Also, agree with Goose that even a thoroughly destroyed region can be rebuilt in less than a generation.  But in order to do that, you have to invest in the region, and in order to invest in the region, you have to be confident that it will not fall into war again.

BC

Totally agree that it is difficult to attract foreign investment if your country lacks a reasonable national security situation. It is also difficult if your country has internal political instability and/or a significant degree of corruption.

I can't imagine any movement to join with Russia gaining any real traction. The brutality of this war seems like it would burn that bridge for a generation at least. Can't think of any good examples of a non conquered nation leaning into their aggressors. South Korea turned heavily to the west. Armenia and Azerbaijan still hate each other, etc.

[gocard14]

The other issue is that no one trusts Putin to honor any peace treaty with Ukraine, so the best a deal that cedes the Donbas to Russia in exchange for peace does is pause hostilities.  Maybe Ukraine needs that after two and a half years of continual war, and maybe Russia's methodical advancing means that Ukraine will have no choice but to sue for peace and hope that something else will intervene and prevent Putin from resuming hostilities, but let's not kid ourselves, a peace treaty with Russia is not worth the paper it is printed on.

Totally agree. IMO it would also be difficult to govern Ukraine in that scenario. Many different factions would arise with different reads on whether to re-unify with Russia, work with Russia, and/or join the EU / NATO. Joining NATO might be enough to keep Russia from attacking again, but would NATO allow Ukraine to join and if so would they honor Article 5 if Russia attacked? Russia will surely attempt political interference in the rump Ukraine even if they aren't (yet) attacking. Difficult to see this ending well, but as BC says Ukraine may feel they have no choice.

Also, agree with Goose that even a thoroughly destroyed region can be rebuilt in less than a generation.  But in order to do that, you have to invest in the region, and in order to invest in the region, you have to be confident that it will not fall into war again.

BC

Totally agree that it is difficult to attract foreign investment if your country lacks a reasonable national security situation. It is also difficult if your country has internal political instability and/or a significant degree of corruption.

I can't imagine any movement to join with Russia gaining any real traction. The brutality of this war seems like it would burn that bridge for a generation at least. Can't think of any good examples of a non conquered nation leaning into their aggressors. South Korea turned heavily to the west. Armenia and Azerbaijan still hate each other, etc.