[Goose]

I think Ukraine's most important objective now is to keep their most mobile units from getting tied down in one for place for any length of time where Russia may have the ability to hit them with the glide bombs and artillery.  I think the units they committed to this operation are among their best.  I think they will try and keep their recon drones up 24/7 and try and find Russian reinforcements still underway that they can hit with drones and possibly HIMARS.  As long as Russia is feeding lesser units into the fight, they have the chance to inflict more casualties and take fewer in return. Maps indicate a very rural area, few roads. If you are willing to play around with the data on this website, you can get a better idea of the terrain (http://www.maphill.com/russia/central/br...sical-map/)

IMO you are absolutely correct. The desire to inflict large casualties on the Russian units as they are being transported into the operational area is why Ukraine is pushing so hard to use HIMARS, Storm Shadow etc. deeper into Russia. Ukraine has yet to receive that permission, which is just crazy. A Russian formation at a railhead 200 km behind the lines is a vulnerable target that can't spread out to minimize casualties. If Ukraine can render that formation combat ineffective before it even gets close enough to be a threat that is a big "win". It is one of the aims of all "major" offensives. Getting into lightly defensed rear areas is an advantage because 1) you can kill lots of the enemy while they are not in a position to hit back, and 2) you can disrupt and deny your opponents ability to move troops to a (even hastily improvised) second line of defense. The second goal is CRITICAL, or you offensive will be "contained". Russia was allowed to build two strong defensive lines in the south and east. Ukraine had no means to stop them. Russia did not do that in the north. Ukraine is exploiting that now. Care to guess what Russia will do this winter?

The Ukrainian C2 has seemed much superior to that demonstrated by Russia.  I see no reason why the C2 of these reserve units thrown into the breach is going to be anything but even worse.  I think if they can just continue to roam around blow **** up, use their drones to attack any units chasing them and keep from getting tied down, they will continue to put pressure on Putin in the bad news department.  Some reports indicate that Russia is building a new MLR much deeper in Kursk.  I can't find the article I read at this point so it may be a bad rumor.

Doubt it is a bad rumor. If Russia isn't already doing it, they soon will. It is in their DNA. Russia's C2 indeed sucks, but once they get their horde of troops into even earth trenches and form a new MLR, they don't need much C2.

They claim they do not intend to hold the land they have taken, but I would guess they will hold as long as they reasonbly can. They seem to be able to find enough fuel from Russian gas stations and their own resupply units and their were clips showing the Ukrainians resupply from Russian markets.  They must be able to keep their munitions supplies up or they would have slowed down long ago. I just hope their leadership is good  enough to keep these units from getting tied down in fixed place battles.

Totally agree with all this. If Russia elects not to eject Ukraine immediately (because they realize they can't) but rather fortifies a MLR well behind where Ukraine is now, Ukraine will certainly try to hold the territory. The continued logistics challenges will then be the deciding factor. So far, so good, but we don't really know much about the current supply situation in Kursk. We only know Ukraine is still there and still advancing, albeit slower. 

If you are interested in this kind of stuff, the ISW article is worth a read: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...porary-war

I very much agree it is worth a read. I am not all the way through it yet. I think one needs to read it somewhat critically though. Lots of food for thought.

[Goose]

I think Ukraine's most important objective now is to keep their most mobile units from getting tied down in one for place for any length of time where Russia may have the ability to hit them with the glide bombs and artillery.  I think the units they committed to this operation are among their best.  I think they will try and keep their recon drones up 24/7 and try and find Russian reinforcements still underway that they can hit with drones and possibly HIMARS.  As long as Russia is feeding lesser units into the fight, they have the chance to inflict more casualties and take fewer in return. Maps indicate a very rural area, few roads. If you are willing to play around with the data on this website, you can get a better idea of the terrain (http://www.maphill.com/russia/central/br...sical-map/)

IMO you are absolutely correct. The desire to inflict large casualties on the Russian units as they are being transported into the operational area is why Ukraine is pushing so hard to use HIMARS, Storm Shadow etc. deeper into Russia. Ukraine has yet to receive that permission, which is just crazy. A Russian formation at a railhead 200 km behind the lines is a vulnerable target that can't spread out to minimize casualties. If Ukraine can render that formation combat ineffective before it even gets close enough to be a threat that is a big "win". It is one of the aims of all "major" offensives. Getting into lightly defensed rear areas is an advantage because 1) you can kill lots of the enemy while they are not in a position to hit back, and 2) you can disrupt and deny your opponents ability to move troops to a (even hastily improvised) second line of defense. The second goal is CRITICAL, or you offensive will be "contained". Russia was allowed to build two strong defensive lines in the south and east. Ukraine had no means to stop them. Russia did not do that in the north. Ukraine is exploiting that now. Care to guess what Russia will do this winter?

The Ukrainian C2 has seemed much superior to that demonstrated by Russia.  I see no reason why the C2 of these reserve units thrown into the breach is going to be anything but even worse.  I think if they can just continue to roam around blow **** up, use their drones to attack any units chasing them and keep from getting tied down, they will continue to put pressure on Putin in the bad news department.  Some reports indicate that Russia is building a new MLR much deeper in Kursk.  I can't find the article I read at this point so it may be a bad rumor.

Doubt it is a bad rumor. If Russia isn't already doing it, they soon will. It is in their DNA. Russia's C2 indeed sucks, but once they get their horde of troops into even earth trenches and form a new MLR, they don't need much C2.

They claim they do not intend to hold the land they have taken, but I would guess they will hold as long as they reasonbly can. They seem to be able to find enough fuel from Russian gas stations and their own resupply units and their were clips showing the Ukrainians resupply from Russian markets.  They must be able to keep their munitions supplies up or they would have slowed down long ago. I just hope their leadership is good  enough to keep these units from getting tied down in fixed place battles.

Totally agree with all this. If Russia elects not to eject Ukraine immediately (because they realize they can't) but rather fortifies a MLR well behind where Ukraine is now, Ukraine will certainly try to hold the territory. The continued logistics challenges will then be the deciding factor. So far, so good, but we don't really know much about the current supply situation in Kursk. We only know Ukraine is still there and still advancing, albeit slower. 

If you are interested in this kind of stuff, the ISW article is worth a read: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...porary-war

I very much agree it is worth a read. I am not all the way through it yet. I think one needs to read it somewhat critically though. Lots of food for thought.