08-14-2024, 07:34 PM
The obvious results of the Kursk attack so far:
The incursion shakes the foundation of Putin's security-first brand and hammers at the vulnerability that the Wagner Group nearly exploited to full effect. It should rattle the belief that Russians have in Putin's narrative of superiority. It could give Ukraine limited ability to strike deeper into Russian territory, staging HIMARS or other artillery to target more infrastructure, airbases, or drone hubs. It could force Russia to divert units from the eastern invasion to counter the incursion (this hasn't happened yet apparently). I believe Russia is drawing up civil reserves and hastily assembled rearguard units to defend Kursk, and the predictable defeat of such units should bring the war home to more and more Russian families, causing dissatisfaction with Putin. Russian media portrays Ukrainian control of Kursk as an attempt to strengthen the Ukrainian bargaining position ahead of any ceasefire negotiations with Russia (Kursk for Donbas?).
Most hopefully, I think the incursion should boost the morale of Ukrainian forces and show the West that Ukraine is not merely fighting a losing, defensive effort. The AFU is competent, cunning, and still deserving of all the support we can give them. What they've accomplished thus far should encourage the West to more fully support Ukraine with the aid and materiel needed to finish this fight before Russia fully adapts to reality and brings its (and Iran's and North Korea's) economic might to bear.
The Ukrainian attack into Kursk was launched 81 years (and one month) after the Germans did the same to Soviet Russia, a bit of a historical echo.
The incursion shakes the foundation of Putin's security-first brand and hammers at the vulnerability that the Wagner Group nearly exploited to full effect. It should rattle the belief that Russians have in Putin's narrative of superiority. It could give Ukraine limited ability to strike deeper into Russian territory, staging HIMARS or other artillery to target more infrastructure, airbases, or drone hubs. It could force Russia to divert units from the eastern invasion to counter the incursion (this hasn't happened yet apparently). I believe Russia is drawing up civil reserves and hastily assembled rearguard units to defend Kursk, and the predictable defeat of such units should bring the war home to more and more Russian families, causing dissatisfaction with Putin. Russian media portrays Ukrainian control of Kursk as an attempt to strengthen the Ukrainian bargaining position ahead of any ceasefire negotiations with Russia (Kursk for Donbas?).
Most hopefully, I think the incursion should boost the morale of Ukrainian forces and show the West that Ukraine is not merely fighting a losing, defensive effort. The AFU is competent, cunning, and still deserving of all the support we can give them. What they've accomplished thus far should encourage the West to more fully support Ukraine with the aid and materiel needed to finish this fight before Russia fully adapts to reality and brings its (and Iran's and North Korea's) economic might to bear.
The Ukrainian attack into Kursk was launched 81 years (and one month) after the Germans did the same to Soviet Russia, a bit of a historical echo.