[Goose]

Some Ukrainian units have really advanced in the last 24 hours. This operation seems to be accelerating rather than slowing down, at least at this point.

https://x.com/moklasen/status/1821597271206805989

This can be great, or it can be "problematic". We don't know what Ukraine's intentions are. Do they intend to occupy and defend themselves in Russian territory? If so, how many assets do they intend to commit to that effort? If the advance exceeds what Ukraine wants to/can defend, it will require retreating from these forward positions. That is fine too as long as you killed many more Russians than Ukrainians doing it. If not, it isn't worth it. It is also possible for Ukraine to defend "forward" with the idea of a slow retreat that will kill lots of Russians and occupy even more in the effort. That can be tricky, but it might be part of the plan.

My real concern at this point is can Ukraine supply their troops that far forward in Russia? The terrain doesn't seem to contain lots of roads. The 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenovo highway runs parallel to the current front line and Ukraine is advancing in both directions along it. The only road leading into Ukraine is the R-200/H07. For Ukraine to stay where they are (let alone advance further) they must have at least intermittent air superiority along that road. Ukraine may do this by SAMs and MANPADS, but they will have to do it if they intend to stay. Otherwise their logistics will be impossible.

[Goose]

Some Ukrainian units have really advanced in the last 24 hours. This operation seems to be accelerating rather than slowing down, at least at this point.

https://x.com/moklasen/status/1821597271206805989

This can be great, or it can be "problematic". We don't know what Ukraine's intentions are. Do they intend to occupy and defend themselves in Russian territory? If so, how many assets do they intend to commit to that effort? If the advance exceeds what Ukraine wants to/can defend, it will require retreating from these forward positions. That is fine too as long as you killed many more Russians than Ukrainians doing it. If not, it isn't worth it. It is also possible for Ukraine to defend "forward" with the idea of a slow retreat that will kill lots of Russians and occupy even more in the effort. That can be tricky, but it might be part of the plan.

My real concern at this point is can Ukraine supply their troops that far forward in Russia? The terrain doesn't seem to contain lots of roads. The 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenovo highway runs parallel to the current front line and Ukraine is advancing in both directions along it. The only road leading into Ukraine is the R-200/H07. For Ukraine to stay where they are (let alone advance further) they must have at least intermittent air superiority along that road. Ukraine may do this by SAMs and MANPADS, but they will have to do it if they intend to stay. Otherwise their logistics will be impossible.