08-03-2024, 12:09 PM
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/181...gr%5Etweet
This is the submarine that was previously damaged in dry dock. Subsequent photos showed what appeared to be two large holes in the submarine. Essentially everybody agreed it couldn't be repaired by facilities available in the Black Sea. However, all of those assessments believed that the "holes" were through both the external casing AND the pressure hull. There is no way to really tell that from the photos. IMO there are two possible explanations of how this boat could have been repaired.
The first possibility is that the "holes" were not hull penetrations, but rather damage to just the casing. The pressure hull was therefore undamaged. The casing is not watertight and does not resist the sea pressure. It is repairable without special equipment. IMO that must have been what actually happened. The second possibility is that there were hull penetrations. Repairing the pressure hull and re-certifying test depth would require special welding capabilities that are present only at shipyards that build and overhaul submarines. It would be a major repair that would probably require extensive disassembly of compartments surrounding the repair. None of the facilities directly accessible from the Black Sea can do this type of work. That is why the "experts" declared the boat unable to be repaired in the Black Sea. It is possible that the Russians welded a "patch" over the damage to the pressure hull. The boat wouldn't be able to dive to any significant depth but it could still submerge. Flow noise would also probably slightly increase. Given the lack of a direct anti-submarine threat in the Black Sea, that may have been deemed "good enough". I wouldn't want to go to sea on such a boat, but I suspect the crew would get little choice :-).
Ukraine claims that this time they actually sank her. I would wait a while before I would believe that. She may have simply submerged to avoid further attacks. OTOH she may have actually "sunk" because of external damage, but if the boat was "buttoned up" when she did there may be little or no internal damage. She could therefore be raised and repaired again without too much difficulty. Of course if the pressure hull was ruptured or hatches were open the interior of the submarine would flood, and that would be beyond repair.
Ukraine also clams destruction of between one and four S-400 sites, depending on which reports one believes. If so, that is also a big deal :-).
This is the submarine that was previously damaged in dry dock. Subsequent photos showed what appeared to be two large holes in the submarine. Essentially everybody agreed it couldn't be repaired by facilities available in the Black Sea. However, all of those assessments believed that the "holes" were through both the external casing AND the pressure hull. There is no way to really tell that from the photos. IMO there are two possible explanations of how this boat could have been repaired.
The first possibility is that the "holes" were not hull penetrations, but rather damage to just the casing. The pressure hull was therefore undamaged. The casing is not watertight and does not resist the sea pressure. It is repairable without special equipment. IMO that must have been what actually happened. The second possibility is that there were hull penetrations. Repairing the pressure hull and re-certifying test depth would require special welding capabilities that are present only at shipyards that build and overhaul submarines. It would be a major repair that would probably require extensive disassembly of compartments surrounding the repair. None of the facilities directly accessible from the Black Sea can do this type of work. That is why the "experts" declared the boat unable to be repaired in the Black Sea. It is possible that the Russians welded a "patch" over the damage to the pressure hull. The boat wouldn't be able to dive to any significant depth but it could still submerge. Flow noise would also probably slightly increase. Given the lack of a direct anti-submarine threat in the Black Sea, that may have been deemed "good enough". I wouldn't want to go to sea on such a boat, but I suspect the crew would get little choice :-).
Ukraine claims that this time they actually sank her. I would wait a while before I would believe that. She may have simply submerged to avoid further attacks. OTOH she may have actually "sunk" because of external damage, but if the boat was "buttoned up" when she did there may be little or no internal damage. She could therefore be raised and repaired again without too much difficulty. Of course if the pressure hull was ruptured or hatches were open the interior of the submarine would flood, and that would be beyond repair.
Ukraine also clams destruction of between one and four S-400 sites, depending on which reports one believes. If so, that is also a big deal :-).