[TrumpCard]

Is your position that Ukraine can't just "survive" the war: (1) merely a restatement of your earlier position that Ukraine won't have a viable economy without re-taking a substantial portion of the industrial heartland it has lost; or (2) an even more pessimistic view, which is that Ukraine's military will collapse if it continues the same basic strategy that it has used for most of the time since Thanksgiving 2022, even though Ukraine has inflicted far more casualties than it has suffered using that strategy and even though Ukraine has lost only a marginal amount of land using that strategy.

Here's what seems notable to me about the last 1.5 years.  For Ukraine, the short time period in mid-2023 when it attacked Russia was Ukraine's most unsuccessful period of the war so far.  Maybe Ukraine just executed the attack very poorly.  But maybe being on the attack in this particular war isn't all it's cracked up to be.  

Here's a different take. Ukraine might run out of troops before Russia ever would, but there are many other pressure points that could come into play before either side runs out of troops.  I don't have a strong view regarding Ukraine's optimal strategy, but it's completely plausible to me that the optimal strategy would be to play defense primarily, while also opportunistically attacking bases, troop formations, and critical infrastructure.  In the 1980s, Afghanistan ultimately succeeded against Russia with a similar sort of strategy (and Russia's dictatorship fell soon after).  Ukraine may not be as economically successful or as populous as Russia, but it has a brobdingnagian leg up on Afghanistan on both those metrics.

[TrumpCard]

Is your position that Ukraine can't just "survive" the war: (1) merely a restatement of your earlier position that Ukraine won't have a viable economy without re-taking a substantial portion of the industrial heartland it has lost; or (2) an even more pessimistic view, which is that Ukraine's military will collapse if it continues the same basic strategy that it has used for most of the time since Thanksgiving 2022, even though Ukraine has inflicted far more casualties than it has suffered using that strategy and even though Ukraine has lost only a marginal amount of land using that strategy.

Here's what seems notable to me about the last 1.5 years.  For Ukraine, the short time period in mid-2023 when it attacked Russia was Ukraine's most unsuccessful period of the war so far.  Maybe Ukraine just executed the attack very poorly.  But maybe being on the attack in this particular war isn't all it's cracked up to be.  

Here's a different take. Ukraine might run out of troops before Russia ever would, but there are many other pressure points that could come into play before either side runs out of troops.  I don't have a strong view regarding Ukraine's optimal strategy, but it's completely plausible to me that the optimal strategy would be to play defense primarily, while also opportunistically attacking bases, troop formations, and critical infrastructure.  In the 1980s, Afghanistan ultimately succeeded against Russia with a similar sort of strategy (and Russia's dictatorship fell soon after).  Ukraine may not be as economically successful or as populous as Russia, but it has a brobdingnagian leg up on Afghanistan on both those metrics.