07-26-2024, 10:38 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-scale-...41562.html
Russia has the option to control the pace of the war. They can (and probably will) go on defense, certainly by when the rains start at the latest. Russia will take a breakthrough if they can get it in the short term. If they don't, pausing to rebuild their mass of untrained/partially trained troops makes sense. They undoubtedly intend to overwhelm Ukraine with numbers next spring if they can't do it this year. IMO Ukraine making it until Russia goes on defense is a "win". It wasn't (and isn't quite yet) a sure thing.
Next year Ukraine may be in better shape. It also may be in similar shape. If it is in a similar condition next spring, IMO the Ukraine will outright lose the war. Then again, I was unsure but not optimistic about their chances through this summer. What is hard to calibrate is how well Russia's military can and will perform. Russia did some smart things this year that really pushed Ukraine to the wall. However, Russia couldn't close the deal. Their "meat assaults" couldn't overcome Ukraine's defenses even though Ukraine was stretch very thin. The constant missile (and now air) attacks, while seriously harming Ukraine, so far isn't sufficient. It does have a cumulative effect though.
In theory, Russia can amass enough troops and open enough new offensives that Ukraine simply will fail due to lack of numbers. In practice it is unclear they can execute. It is unclear they actually have a strategy beyond banging away until Ukraine folds up due to morale collapse or Ukraine is no longer able to be adequately supplied by the west. Ukraine needs a strategy to deny Russia the ability to fight the war on Russia's schedule and whim. If Ukraine can't do that, they eventually lose, period.
Russia has the option to control the pace of the war. They can (and probably will) go on defense, certainly by when the rains start at the latest. Russia will take a breakthrough if they can get it in the short term. If they don't, pausing to rebuild their mass of untrained/partially trained troops makes sense. They undoubtedly intend to overwhelm Ukraine with numbers next spring if they can't do it this year. IMO Ukraine making it until Russia goes on defense is a "win". It wasn't (and isn't quite yet) a sure thing.
Next year Ukraine may be in better shape. It also may be in similar shape. If it is in a similar condition next spring, IMO the Ukraine will outright lose the war. Then again, I was unsure but not optimistic about their chances through this summer. What is hard to calibrate is how well Russia's military can and will perform. Russia did some smart things this year that really pushed Ukraine to the wall. However, Russia couldn't close the deal. Their "meat assaults" couldn't overcome Ukraine's defenses even though Ukraine was stretch very thin. The constant missile (and now air) attacks, while seriously harming Ukraine, so far isn't sufficient. It does have a cumulative effect though.
In theory, Russia can amass enough troops and open enough new offensives that Ukraine simply will fail due to lack of numbers. In practice it is unclear they can execute. It is unclear they actually have a strategy beyond banging away until Ukraine folds up due to morale collapse or Ukraine is no longer able to be adequately supplied by the west. Ukraine needs a strategy to deny Russia the ability to fight the war on Russia's schedule and whim. If Ukraine can't do that, they eventually lose, period.