[Goose]

Seeing a lot of reports of diminishing Russian artillery capacity and inability to get enough barrels. Just as T90s are a diminishing quantity of Russian tanks being destroyed 152mm guns are declining pretty rapidly while smaller caliber hodgepodge are increasing.

I have seen similar statements. 152mm artillery is the "core" of Russian artillery. So far, it isn't serious enough to be "confirmed" yet AFAIK.

Also seeing more and more successful drone strikes on Russian logistics, refineries, etc. I wonder if we are seeing the cumulative effects of degradation of Russian capacity.

IMO it is more the Ukrainian's improvisation of new long-range striking capabilities over the years of the war. Russia never had the ability to protect even most of its important military and industrial sites from such attacks. It isn't easy to do best case. You need an active and competent air force that can defend their air space and areas within it. Back in the early 1990s the PVO could do it. It no longer exists.

If Im Ukraine, it seems the best course of action may just be to let the Russians keep throwing themselves into the grinder. Continue to degrade their capacity of men and materiel with cheap drones , and wait as long as politically possible before trying another offensive, ideally after F16s have been integrated.

Ukraine right now has no other option but to hunker down and hope Russia will eventually quit. If the US stops providing significant aid, that approach will probably fail, but that is all there is. Starting another offensive is definitely off the table until Ukraine has an air force. Hopefully that will be "soon".

Sadly it may be true that North Korea can provide Russia with large quantities of replacement artillery, if required. It undoubtedly will have its problems, but if one has "enough" of it it won't matter.

[Goose]

Seeing a lot of reports of diminishing Russian artillery capacity and inability to get enough barrels. Just as T90s are a diminishing quantity of Russian tanks being destroyed 152mm guns are declining pretty rapidly while smaller caliber hodgepodge are increasing.

I have seen similar statements. 152mm artillery is the "core" of Russian artillery. So far, it isn't serious enough to be "confirmed" yet AFAIK.

Also seeing more and more successful drone strikes on Russian logistics, refineries, etc. I wonder if we are seeing the cumulative effects of degradation of Russian capacity.

IMO it is more the Ukrainian's improvisation of new long-range striking capabilities over the years of the war. Russia never had the ability to protect even most of its important military and industrial sites from such attacks. It isn't easy to do best case. You need an active and competent air force that can defend their air space and areas within it. Back in the early 1990s the PVO could do it. It no longer exists.

If Im Ukraine, it seems the best course of action may just be to let the Russians keep throwing themselves into the grinder. Continue to degrade their capacity of men and materiel with cheap drones , and wait as long as politically possible before trying another offensive, ideally after F16s have been integrated.

Ukraine right now has no other option but to hunker down and hope Russia will eventually quit. If the US stops providing significant aid, that approach will probably fail, but that is all there is. Starting another offensive is definitely off the table until Ukraine has an air force. Hopefully that will be "soon".

Sadly it may be true that North Korea can provide Russia with large quantities of replacement artillery, if required. It undoubtedly will have its problems, but if one has "enough" of it it won't matter.