[Goose]

Ukraine obviously tracking the polls.

https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/181...4573622751

Scoop: Kyiv wants to convene a second meeting to achieve a fair peace settlement in Ukraine before the US elections in November -- this time with Russia attending, sources told 
@DarynaKrasno
 
@AlbertoNardelli
 and me. 

The push to organize the meeting before the US elections points to a sense of urgency on the part of Ukraine as it faces the prospect of Trump returning to the White House.

Russian gains have been slowed and Ukraine seems on stable footing now but that position relies on continued US support that would certainly dry up in a second Trump term. I'm skeptical that something durable could be agreed in this scenario; Russia would happily lock up gains they've made, but what assurance could Ukraine rely on that the fighting is over, when Russian leaders talk openly about occupying Kiev and destroying NATO.
.....

I am sure Putin is tracking the polls too. Right now, I strongly suspect his willingness to accept anything less than total unconditional surrender from Ukraine is less than zero. He will at least keep banging away until after the election. I doubt he would even be willing to accept a Czechoslovakia type solution of "much now, the rest later".  The Russian people will eventually find out what this war has cost them and how little benefit it will bring in return. As long as the war goes on, that reckoning is deferred. Stopping in the middle is not in Putin's interest.

https://x.com/beverstine/status/1811422827956044247

The U.S. Air Force early this year announced a plan for a new, air-launched, cheaper munition--the Extended Range Attack Munition.

Now, the service's weapons directorate says it is for Ukraine

https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1811426829561118822

With Storm Shadow/SCALP in shorter supply, the US is looking to develop a replacement type munition.

.....

Unfortunately RFIs are a dime for several dozen. Means very little. I know, we answered lots of them over the years :-). Oftentimes it was in response by a legitimate need that the military bureaucracy had no intention of actually satisfying. They needed to "do something", and the RFI was it. Then everybody forgets all about it. Of course, we do need such a development, but we need it now, not 24 months from now.

Russian plans to assassinate the CEO of Rheinmetall were foiled. Russia is at war with NATO, but NATO doesn't seem to want to fully acknowledge and respond like that's the case.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1811420477857927197

Yep. In fairness, the decision tree in all the NATO countries is pretty convoluted. Unless there are Russian troops streaming across your border lots of "stakeholders" won't acknowledge the problem. Putin knows this and is taking advantage.

[Goose]

Ukraine obviously tracking the polls.

https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/181...4573622751

Scoop: Kyiv wants to convene a second meeting to achieve a fair peace settlement in Ukraine before the US elections in November -- this time with Russia attending, sources told 
@DarynaKrasno
 
@AlbertoNardelli
 and me. 

The push to organize the meeting before the US elections points to a sense of urgency on the part of Ukraine as it faces the prospect of Trump returning to the White House.

Russian gains have been slowed and Ukraine seems on stable footing now but that position relies on continued US support that would certainly dry up in a second Trump term. I'm skeptical that something durable could be agreed in this scenario; Russia would happily lock up gains they've made, but what assurance could Ukraine rely on that the fighting is over, when Russian leaders talk openly about occupying Kiev and destroying NATO.
.....

I am sure Putin is tracking the polls too. Right now, I strongly suspect his willingness to accept anything less than total unconditional surrender from Ukraine is less than zero. He will at least keep banging away until after the election. I doubt he would even be willing to accept a Czechoslovakia type solution of "much now, the rest later".  The Russian people will eventually find out what this war has cost them and how little benefit it will bring in return. As long as the war goes on, that reckoning is deferred. Stopping in the middle is not in Putin's interest.

https://x.com/beverstine/status/1811422827956044247

The U.S. Air Force early this year announced a plan for a new, air-launched, cheaper munition--the Extended Range Attack Munition.

Now, the service's weapons directorate says it is for Ukraine

https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1811426829561118822

With Storm Shadow/SCALP in shorter supply, the US is looking to develop a replacement type munition.

.....

Unfortunately RFIs are a dime for several dozen. Means very little. I know, we answered lots of them over the years :-). Oftentimes it was in response by a legitimate need that the military bureaucracy had no intention of actually satisfying. They needed to "do something", and the RFI was it. Then everybody forgets all about it. Of course, we do need such a development, but we need it now, not 24 months from now.

Russian plans to assassinate the CEO of Rheinmetall were foiled. Russia is at war with NATO, but NATO doesn't seem to want to fully acknowledge and respond like that's the case.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1811420477857927197

Yep. In fairness, the decision tree in all the NATO countries is pretty convoluted. Unless there are Russian troops streaming across your border lots of "stakeholders" won't acknowledge the problem. Putin knows this and is taking advantage.