[TrumpCard]

I don't have an opinion on the overall thesis that Russia "can't afford to lose," but I want to write a note on the means this article uses to measure growth.  GDP -- which is the worldwide standard for measuring economic growth -- is supposed to measure a country's productivity.  Not all productivity, however, is equal.  Countries want to be productive in ways that make people's lives better, such as by generating new and useful technologies or by manufacturing goods that people use or by growing more and better agricultural products.  A country still gets credit for GDP, however, even when the country focuses its productivity on manufacturing bombs and other things that don't improve lives.  Sometimes such investments in the military are necessary to preserve a country's way of life by deterring or defeating enemies who pose threats, but I do not see any reason that countries should think of an investment in the military as an end in itself.  These days, Russia is getting credit for economic growth when it pays soldiers to lie in frozen trenches, which isn't exactly the kind of "growth" that will make Russia a good place to live.  I don't know what would happen to Russia's economy if the government were to prevail against Ukraine, but I do know that a "forever war" would not be a good outcome for Russia.

[TrumpCard]

I don't have an opinion on the overall thesis that Russia "can't afford to lose," but I want to write a note on the means this article uses to measure growth.  GDP -- which is the worldwide standard for measuring economic growth -- is supposed to measure a country's productivity.  Not all productivity, however, is equal.  Countries want to be productive in ways that make people's lives better, such as by generating new and useful technologies or by manufacturing goods that people use or by growing more and better agricultural products.  A country still gets credit for GDP, however, even when the country focuses its productivity on manufacturing bombs and other things that don't improve lives.  Sometimes such investments in the military are necessary to preserve a country's way of life by deterring or defeating enemies who pose threats, but I do not see any reason that countries should think of an investment in the military as an end in itself.  These days, Russia is getting credit for economic growth when it pays soldiers to lie in frozen trenches, which isn't exactly the kind of "growth" that will make Russia a good place to live.  I don't know what would happen to Russia's economy if the government were to prevail against Ukraine, but I do know that a "forever war" would not be a good outcome for Russia.