[Goose]

Russian losses, at least from my one man view point have been astronomic.  I cannot believe Russian planning assuned anything like this.  Which makes me wonder if losses of this magnitude coninue, might Putin be in danger of walking out of an open window?

https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-i...asualties/

Russian planning generally speaking << Russian reality :). It might be nice if that "accident" should happen. Unfortunately IMO it isn't going to. Putin has enemies alright. Some of them, particularly in the FSB could undoubtedly get him killed. But then what? Nobody in that organization has the public presence to rally the populace to support them. It is partly the nature of the work they do and greatly because Putin gets rid of anybody who is even approaching enough popularity to replace him. Like Saddam, Putin has created a society with no other leaders but himself. Russians have been saying for years "If not Putin, who?".

If Putin dies a natural or assisted death IMO it is quite likely a multi-polar civil war will break out. It may be large and very violent or small and merely violent, but it will happen. This undoubtedly will be great for Ukraine in at least the very short term. What it would mean for the world going forward is very unpredictable.

I was under the impression that the half-dozen or so of Putin's likely successors were even more hard-line than Putin. Is that the case?

I don't know, and I doubt anybody really does. These "potential successors" are undoubtedly staking out positions based on what they believe is politically expedient right now. In many cases it may be they think a "hard line" helps them politically right now. Some of them may actually be guided by Putin in order to modulate public opinion. In any case, if any one of these people gain power the political calculus for them will change radically. What they will actually do is unpredictable. That makes them potentially more dangerous than them actually being "hard-line" ideologically. They may read the domestic or international political situation wrong and do something really stupid.

[Goose]

Russian losses, at least from my one man view point have been astronomic.  I cannot believe Russian planning assuned anything like this.  Which makes me wonder if losses of this magnitude coninue, might Putin be in danger of walking out of an open window?

https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-i...asualties/

Russian planning generally speaking << Russian reality :). It might be nice if that "accident" should happen. Unfortunately IMO it isn't going to. Putin has enemies alright. Some of them, particularly in the FSB could undoubtedly get him killed. But then what? Nobody in that organization has the public presence to rally the populace to support them. It is partly the nature of the work they do and greatly because Putin gets rid of anybody who is even approaching enough popularity to replace him. Like Saddam, Putin has created a society with no other leaders but himself. Russians have been saying for years "If not Putin, who?".

If Putin dies a natural or assisted death IMO it is quite likely a multi-polar civil war will break out. It may be large and very violent or small and merely violent, but it will happen. This undoubtedly will be great for Ukraine in at least the very short term. What it would mean for the world going forward is very unpredictable.

I was under the impression that the half-dozen or so of Putin's likely successors were even more hard-line than Putin. Is that the case?

I don't know, and I doubt anybody really does. These "potential successors" are undoubtedly staking out positions based on what they believe is politically expedient right now. In many cases it may be they think a "hard line" helps them politically right now. Some of them may actually be guided by Putin in order to modulate public opinion. In any case, if any one of these people gain power the political calculus for them will change radically. What they will actually do is unpredictable. That makes them potentially more dangerous than them actually being "hard-line" ideologically. They may read the domestic or international political situation wrong and do something really stupid.