06-14-2024, 11:04 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-draft...00608.html
This article may be way too pessimistic regarding the prospects for Ukraine to increase the size of their military. However, it does point out there are certainly "issues" that work against doing so. The population dynamics regarding Russia are what they are. All along it has been clear that Ukraine could not win a "numbers game". Avoiding that was critical. The hope was that the Ukraine's offensive of late last summer would create the conditions to end the war relatively soon. Ukraine would break the land bridge and threaten Crimea. Russia wouldn't have the option of banging away and winning by attrition. That didn't happen, and it is improbable Ukraine can muster a significant offensive this summer. In fact, the question is more what kind of offensive Russia can and will put together.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/plane-ukraine...35069.html
Somehow I missed the fact Ukraine was actually getting TWO aircraft from Sweden. That does make a significant difference. One aircraft can be undergoing maintenance while the other flies. This article also contains a somewhat understated description of how the F-16s can be initially employed. The concept of first using F-16s to "protect cities" from cruise missiles and drones is undoubtedly going to happen. The mini-AWACS will be key in locating these targets and vectoring appropriate F-16s to them. Keeping the F-16s out of danger while doing this by keeping them "back" however isn't possible. A quick look at the map shows that the two main cities in Ukraine are close to the Russian border. Both the controllers and the pilots will need to "honor the threat". To be effective, AWACS can't hide. The long range capability of the S-400 was designed to (among other things) force NATO AWACS away from the battle area and/or lower altitudes. Ukraine will need to keep that in mind too.
IMO Ukraine will very early on look for a way to "make a splash" with their F-16s. It won't be something they intend to do every day, but rather something to get the Russian's attention". Right now Russia can pretty well discount any air threat. They get careless and get away with it. For example, F-16s shooting down Russian aircraft that are launching glide bombs will force Russia to change their operations. The idea is that Ukraine can force Russia to "honor the threat" everywhere even though Ukraine has too few aircraft to attack everywhere. Russia doesn't know where and when they will get hit. Ukraine can impose a cost on Russian operations all out of proportion to the force they have. This is a type of "fleet in being" argument. It is not what it does but what it could do that is the issue. Of course, a "fleet in being" can't win the war. Eventually it must actually engage and fight to do that. Hopefully the Ukrainian air force can and will eventually do that.
This article may be way too pessimistic regarding the prospects for Ukraine to increase the size of their military. However, it does point out there are certainly "issues" that work against doing so. The population dynamics regarding Russia are what they are. All along it has been clear that Ukraine could not win a "numbers game". Avoiding that was critical. The hope was that the Ukraine's offensive of late last summer would create the conditions to end the war relatively soon. Ukraine would break the land bridge and threaten Crimea. Russia wouldn't have the option of banging away and winning by attrition. That didn't happen, and it is improbable Ukraine can muster a significant offensive this summer. In fact, the question is more what kind of offensive Russia can and will put together.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/plane-ukraine...35069.html
Somehow I missed the fact Ukraine was actually getting TWO aircraft from Sweden. That does make a significant difference. One aircraft can be undergoing maintenance while the other flies. This article also contains a somewhat understated description of how the F-16s can be initially employed. The concept of first using F-16s to "protect cities" from cruise missiles and drones is undoubtedly going to happen. The mini-AWACS will be key in locating these targets and vectoring appropriate F-16s to them. Keeping the F-16s out of danger while doing this by keeping them "back" however isn't possible. A quick look at the map shows that the two main cities in Ukraine are close to the Russian border. Both the controllers and the pilots will need to "honor the threat". To be effective, AWACS can't hide. The long range capability of the S-400 was designed to (among other things) force NATO AWACS away from the battle area and/or lower altitudes. Ukraine will need to keep that in mind too.
IMO Ukraine will very early on look for a way to "make a splash" with their F-16s. It won't be something they intend to do every day, but rather something to get the Russian's attention". Right now Russia can pretty well discount any air threat. They get careless and get away with it. For example, F-16s shooting down Russian aircraft that are launching glide bombs will force Russia to change their operations. The idea is that Ukraine can force Russia to "honor the threat" everywhere even though Ukraine has too few aircraft to attack everywhere. Russia doesn't know where and when they will get hit. Ukraine can impose a cost on Russian operations all out of proportion to the force they have. This is a type of "fleet in being" argument. It is not what it does but what it could do that is the issue. Of course, a "fleet in being" can't win the war. Eventually it must actually engage and fight to do that. Hopefully the Ukrainian air force can and will eventually do that.