06-11-2024, 08:21 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-patrol...59186.html
Russia has finally come down to their last line of offense. A little over two years ago I posted the following:
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthrea...#pid352444
Ukraine has broken the blockade by establishing a route that passes entirely through NATO nations territorial waters. This took some doing. The route didn't exist before the war and lots of cleanup was required to create it. This route isn't ideal but it is much better than nothing. It isn't a "fast" route and never will be. Commercially these are problems. All this has kind of dropped off the news cycle but it matters a lot to Ukraine. A reference to the current state of Ukrainian agriculture can be found here:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/setting-re...in-exports
Bottom line here is that Ukraine hasn't ever reached pre-war export levels. These export numbers in the last two years are additionally artificially inflated by grain that was stored previously because it couldn't be exported. Almost all of that backlog is now gone and Ukrainian exports are expected to drop to the currently sustainable levels, which for many reasons will be substantially even further below pre-war levels.
Russia can't attack ships in NATO waters for "political" reasons. They still can and do attack ships in Ukrainian ports. These attacks are more harassment than they are serious attempts to shut down the grain corridor. Even if the Russian Black Sea fleet was restored to its pre-war state that wouldn't change. Invisible lines in the water protect Ukrainian commerce in this area :-).
The Kalibr capable submarines still pose a threat to Ukraine because they can launch missiles from unexpected bearings and these missiles can have a short time of flight relative to those launched from Russia proper, especially against targets in south Ukraine. The short flight time makes these missiles difficult to destroy. As it turned out Ukraine didn't need NATO's help to attack Novorossiysk. They can do it themselves, if only occasionally. So far these attacks can also be classed as harassment. The six Kilo class submarines are down to four. Ukraine effectively destroyed one while it was in dry dock, but that was in Sevastopol. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/202...evastopol/ I think one other one is in a major refit and is also not operational. Of the four remaining, only three are upgraded to fire Kalibr.
The submarines still patrol the Black Sea. Ukraine can undoubtedly take them out by attacking them when they are leaving or re-entering port. Ukraine has suicide sea drones that can do it. However, IMO a better way would be to outfit a sea drone with a lightweight ASW torpedo like the MU-90 (a European model so the US won't be involved). The torpedo is much more likely to sink the submarine outright. It can also home on the submarine via active sonar so it is much more likely to hit it somewhere vital. It can also be fired from a significant distance away. This latter property is important because the drone may not detect the submarine visually. It can hear it (when it is on the surface) well before it can see it, particularly at night.
Russia has finally come down to their last line of offense. A little over two years ago I posted the following:
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthrea...#pid352444
Ukraine has broken the blockade by establishing a route that passes entirely through NATO nations territorial waters. This took some doing. The route didn't exist before the war and lots of cleanup was required to create it. This route isn't ideal but it is much better than nothing. It isn't a "fast" route and never will be. Commercially these are problems. All this has kind of dropped off the news cycle but it matters a lot to Ukraine. A reference to the current state of Ukrainian agriculture can be found here:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/setting-re...in-exports
Bottom line here is that Ukraine hasn't ever reached pre-war export levels. These export numbers in the last two years are additionally artificially inflated by grain that was stored previously because it couldn't be exported. Almost all of that backlog is now gone and Ukrainian exports are expected to drop to the currently sustainable levels, which for many reasons will be substantially even further below pre-war levels.
Russia can't attack ships in NATO waters for "political" reasons. They still can and do attack ships in Ukrainian ports. These attacks are more harassment than they are serious attempts to shut down the grain corridor. Even if the Russian Black Sea fleet was restored to its pre-war state that wouldn't change. Invisible lines in the water protect Ukrainian commerce in this area :-).
The Kalibr capable submarines still pose a threat to Ukraine because they can launch missiles from unexpected bearings and these missiles can have a short time of flight relative to those launched from Russia proper, especially against targets in south Ukraine. The short flight time makes these missiles difficult to destroy. As it turned out Ukraine didn't need NATO's help to attack Novorossiysk. They can do it themselves, if only occasionally. So far these attacks can also be classed as harassment. The six Kilo class submarines are down to four. Ukraine effectively destroyed one while it was in dry dock, but that was in Sevastopol. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/202...evastopol/ I think one other one is in a major refit and is also not operational. Of the four remaining, only three are upgraded to fire Kalibr.
The submarines still patrol the Black Sea. Ukraine can undoubtedly take them out by attacking them when they are leaving or re-entering port. Ukraine has suicide sea drones that can do it. However, IMO a better way would be to outfit a sea drone with a lightweight ASW torpedo like the MU-90 (a European model so the US won't be involved). The torpedo is much more likely to sink the submarine outright. It can also home on the submarine via active sonar so it is much more likely to hit it somewhere vital. It can also be fired from a significant distance away. This latter property is important because the drone may not detect the submarine visually. It can hear it (when it is on the surface) well before it can see it, particularly at night.