[Goose]

More on the ATACMS. Per this, Ukraine has received both unitary warhead and cluster munition long range versions of the ATACMS.

Unitary warhead version could perhaps be used on a Crimean bridge strike, though I am doubtful it would be used for that any time soon- would need to use a lot of the very finite and valuable missiles, and Ukraine in no position for the next year at least to mount any significant offensive that would take advantage of it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukrai...rcna148309

The ATACMS is just barely able to reach the bridge from the closest places in Ukrainian held territory, if one uses the published range figures. The bridge is also protected by GPS jamming which would make a precision attack difficult.  I would not put it beyond the realm of possibility that Ukraine could figure out a way to knock out the GPS jamming, distract the anti-missile defenses (such as they are), and hit the bridge. However, that would be a "bold" operation. IMO Ukraine wouldn't do it unless they were at least 80% sure it would work.

You are of course correct that Ukraine is not in any position to mount an offensive anywhere in the south at this time. However, destroying the bridge would be very worthwhile anytime they can pull it off. The Russian logistics for both civilian and military people in Crimea depends pretty heavily on that bridge. Having it gone would be a big plus anytime it is possible to do it. It will considerably weaken Russia in Crimea and South Kherson Oblast. Of course, this is only true if the bridge is put out of action to the point repairing it within the next two years is impossible.  IOW timing can be important but possibly not governing.

[Goose]

More on the ATACMS. Per this, Ukraine has received both unitary warhead and cluster munition long range versions of the ATACMS.

Unitary warhead version could perhaps be used on a Crimean bridge strike, though I am doubtful it would be used for that any time soon- would need to use a lot of the very finite and valuable missiles, and Ukraine in no position for the next year at least to mount any significant offensive that would take advantage of it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukrai...rcna148309

The ATACMS is just barely able to reach the bridge from the closest places in Ukrainian held territory, if one uses the published range figures. The bridge is also protected by GPS jamming which would make a precision attack difficult.  I would not put it beyond the realm of possibility that Ukraine could figure out a way to knock out the GPS jamming, distract the anti-missile defenses (such as they are), and hit the bridge. However, that would be a "bold" operation. IMO Ukraine wouldn't do it unless they were at least 80% sure it would work.

You are of course correct that Ukraine is not in any position to mount an offensive anywhere in the south at this time. However, destroying the bridge would be very worthwhile anytime they can pull it off. The Russian logistics for both civilian and military people in Crimea depends pretty heavily on that bridge. Having it gone would be a big plus anytime it is possible to do it. It will considerably weaken Russia in Crimea and South Kherson Oblast. Of course, this is only true if the bridge is put out of action to the point repairing it within the next two years is impossible.  IOW timing can be important but possibly not governing.