[Goose]

Aid bill signed. Here is the announcement of latest tranche of aid, the first of which will be arriving within hours.

https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1783154838601072916

Another source of the same data (https://insidedefense.com/insider/dod-an...ng-package) containing some additional context. Obviously the "most important" item in the list is the 155mm HE and DPICM ammunition. The small arms and 0.50 caliber rounds are also very important, as Ukrainian infantry was apparently running critically short of these as well.

There are some potentially eyebrow-raising items on the list, both offensively and defensively. Defensively, the Anti-armor mines and "Claymore anti-personnel munitions" are oriented toward holding ground while minimizing the number of troops needed to do so. As far as I recall, this hasn't previously been a priority. The RIM-7s are presumably to re-arm the BUK-M1 "Frankensams" which are somewhat useful against cruise missiles and possibly Iranian drones, as well as any VKS aircraft that is stupid enough to enter the BUK's effective range. The AIM-9Ms have previously been adapted by Ukraine to function something like a M48 Chaparral. IMO not very useful at the moment. That isn't the whole story on the AIM-9Ms though :-). One item missing from this "draw down" list is any Patriot missiles. I hope that is an oversight or that the EU is already going to promptly supply some.

Offensively, there are a lot of items to like, but the  eyebrow-raising items to me are Airfield support equipment and Precision aerial munitions. Why Airfield support equipment other than to support F-16s? Very little of what we have would help Ukraine fly however many MIG/SU aircraft they have remaining. While we have sent Precision aerial munitions before it never amounted to much that was effective. Why send more unless we see a way to make them effective, like putting them on F-16s? The F-16As Ukraine is receiving are able to use the AIM-9M, which might be the intended destination of the current shipments. Interesting possibilities. I wonder if F-16Cs are "Airfield support equipment"? Just kidding, but there are some interesting items in the list.

As for when the stuff actually will get to Ukraine, we still don't have a good read. The President said

"I'm making sure the shipments start right away,” he said. “In the next few hours -- literally in a few hours -- we are going to begin sending equipment to Ukraine for air defense munitions, artillery for rocket systems, and armored vehicles.”

Begin sending isn't exactly reassuring. It would have been nice if he has said these items would be arriving in Ukraine <today> <tomorrow> ... but we didn't get that. We do know that the administration used some residual unspent funds to preposition items for quick delivery. Hopefully the various forms of ammunition will arrive "very soon" and will be  packed in a way it is easy for Ukraine to get to the "front". Time matters, but at least thing are now able to move.

[Goose]

Aid bill signed. Here is the announcement of latest tranche of aid, the first of which will be arriving within hours.

https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1783154838601072916

Another source of the same data (https://insidedefense.com/insider/dod-an...ng-package) containing some additional context. Obviously the "most important" item in the list is the 155mm HE and DPICM ammunition. The small arms and 0.50 caliber rounds are also very important, as Ukrainian infantry was apparently running critically short of these as well.

There are some potentially eyebrow-raising items on the list, both offensively and defensively. Defensively, the Anti-armor mines and "Claymore anti-personnel munitions" are oriented toward holding ground while minimizing the number of troops needed to do so. As far as I recall, this hasn't previously been a priority. The RIM-7s are presumably to re-arm the BUK-M1 "Frankensams" which are somewhat useful against cruise missiles and possibly Iranian drones, as well as any VKS aircraft that is stupid enough to enter the BUK's effective range. The AIM-9Ms have previously been adapted by Ukraine to function something like a M48 Chaparral. IMO not very useful at the moment. That isn't the whole story on the AIM-9Ms though :-). One item missing from this "draw down" list is any Patriot missiles. I hope that is an oversight or that the EU is already going to promptly supply some.

Offensively, there are a lot of items to like, but the  eyebrow-raising items to me are Airfield support equipment and Precision aerial munitions. Why Airfield support equipment other than to support F-16s? Very little of what we have would help Ukraine fly however many MIG/SU aircraft they have remaining. While we have sent Precision aerial munitions before it never amounted to much that was effective. Why send more unless we see a way to make them effective, like putting them on F-16s? The F-16As Ukraine is receiving are able to use the AIM-9M, which might be the intended destination of the current shipments. Interesting possibilities. I wonder if F-16Cs are "Airfield support equipment"? Just kidding, but there are some interesting items in the list.

As for when the stuff actually will get to Ukraine, we still don't have a good read. The President said

"I'm making sure the shipments start right away,” he said. “In the next few hours -- literally in a few hours -- we are going to begin sending equipment to Ukraine for air defense munitions, artillery for rocket systems, and armored vehicles.”

Begin sending isn't exactly reassuring. It would have been nice if he has said these items would be arriving in Ukraine <today> <tomorrow> ... but we didn't get that. We do know that the administration used some residual unspent funds to preposition items for quick delivery. Hopefully the various forms of ammunition will arrive "very soon" and will be  packed in a way it is easy for Ukraine to get to the "front". Time matters, but at least thing are now able to move.