[Goose]

Thanks for the information.  I have now been wondering where the F16's will be based.  I would assume fairly far from any border with Russia.  I assume the Russians will make every effort to hit those bases.  If the F16's and the Ukrainian drone teams can take out enough S-400s, could they create a little bubble around the border with Russia, say close by Crimea?  If so, then it would seem likely a fairly large part of Crimea would be reachable. They could then treat the Russian infantry manning all those trenches to their own day experiencing large JDAM bombing.  Defending Crimea would hard for Russia if the bridge gets taken out.
Have to see howit plays out.

I suspect the F-16s will be dispersed as widely as possible and moved around as much as possible. The dispersal will help somewhat with the anti-drone operations. I have been intrigued with the Ukrainians continued targeting of S-400 assets and IADS radars in Crimea. It may be due to targets of opportunity, but right now S-400s aren't really an immediate threat. Why keep going after them? I can only assume Ukraine is trying to do exactly what you suggest, at least on some level.

Crimea contained the vast majority of the air defense assets (missiles) that the Soviet Union intended to use to defend their Black Sea assets. There were SA-xx and S-300s spread all over the area. They were distributed widely to make it difficult to kill them all with one air strike. The Soviets intended that part of southern Russia (Ukraine) to be a "no go" zone as much as possible. There were also lots of PVO installations. The USAF EORBAT maps of the area had designated missile sites all over the place. Ukraine inherited all that, but really didn't need it. NATO wasn't going to attack them. Unfortunately Ukraine lost all that when Crimea was lost in 2014, leaving the rest of Ukraine with relatively fewer air defense assets.

Some of the Crimea air defense system undoubtedly remains. How much of it "works" is difficult to determine, which makes it difficult to know exactly how well defended Crimea is from the air. All that infrastructure is old and pointing the wrong way. Russia so far hasn't been really using an "integrated" air defense system and "early warning" radars are not prominent. That may have to change if Ukraine really mounts an air threat. This is not something the VKS has really had to do "for real", so how good they are at it remains to be seen. IMO Ukraine intends to use air power to break through into the south. Exactly where is the question. It may be further up the river, as it was in 2023. It also may be in Crimea because the Russian land defenses are less formidable.

The PVO is gone, so the air defense of Crimea is all missiles. Russia has been using S-400 in the ground attack mode, for which they are ill suited. How many are still extant in Crimea? Indeed we will see what Ukraine attempts to do.

[Goose]

Thanks for the information.  I have now been wondering where the F16's will be based.  I would assume fairly far from any border with Russia.  I assume the Russians will make every effort to hit those bases.  If the F16's and the Ukrainian drone teams can take out enough S-400s, could they create a little bubble around the border with Russia, say close by Crimea?  If so, then it would seem likely a fairly large part of Crimea would be reachable. They could then treat the Russian infantry manning all those trenches to their own day experiencing large JDAM bombing.  Defending Crimea would hard for Russia if the bridge gets taken out.
Have to see howit plays out.

I suspect the F-16s will be dispersed as widely as possible and moved around as much as possible. The dispersal will help somewhat with the anti-drone operations. I have been intrigued with the Ukrainians continued targeting of S-400 assets and IADS radars in Crimea. It may be due to targets of opportunity, but right now S-400s aren't really an immediate threat. Why keep going after them? I can only assume Ukraine is trying to do exactly what you suggest, at least on some level.

Crimea contained the vast majority of the air defense assets (missiles) that the Soviet Union intended to use to defend their Black Sea assets. There were SA-xx and S-300s spread all over the area. They were distributed widely to make it difficult to kill them all with one air strike. The Soviets intended that part of southern Russia (Ukraine) to be a "no go" zone as much as possible. There were also lots of PVO installations. The USAF EORBAT maps of the area had designated missile sites all over the place. Ukraine inherited all that, but really didn't need it. NATO wasn't going to attack them. Unfortunately Ukraine lost all that when Crimea was lost in 2014, leaving the rest of Ukraine with relatively fewer air defense assets.

Some of the Crimea air defense system undoubtedly remains. How much of it "works" is difficult to determine, which makes it difficult to know exactly how well defended Crimea is from the air. All that infrastructure is old and pointing the wrong way. Russia so far hasn't been really using an "integrated" air defense system and "early warning" radars are not prominent. That may have to change if Ukraine really mounts an air threat. This is not something the VKS has really had to do "for real", so how good they are at it remains to be seen. IMO Ukraine intends to use air power to break through into the south. Exactly where is the question. It may be further up the river, as it was in 2023. It also may be in Crimea because the Russian land defenses are less formidable.

The PVO is gone, so the air defense of Crimea is all missiles. Russia has been using S-400 in the ground attack mode, for which they are ill suited. How many are still extant in Crimea? Indeed we will see what Ukraine attempts to do.