04-22-2024, 01:33 PM
(04-22-2024, 12:14 PM)Goose Wrote:(04-22-2024, 08:57 AM)M T Wrote: Perhaps a more appropriate question is why Russia/Putin is willing to spend so many dead and so much of the oligarchs’ frozen assets?Who knows? It doesn't make sense to us, but it does to them. That is why relying on them to behave "rationally" isn't a good strategy. They already aren't.
Quote:Also, it has seemingly exposed some softer than generally known aspects of its military.Indeed it has. Unfortunately we/Ukraine have been unable to rapidly take advantage of these weaknesses and have given Russia time to correct them. We have "immunized" them by applying a non-lethal dose of the "disease". It is actually quite interesting (in a macabre sort of way) to follow the evolution of the air war. Russia is getting better by the day. Not good for NATO.
Quote:This proxy war for the west helps clarify what is working and what isn’t.Mostly helps Russia. Ukraine isn't fighting as we would. Lots of what happens in Ukraine wouldn't happen in a NATO vs Russia conflict, so those lessons learned will not apply. Russia OTOH is finding out all the "mechanical" problems they have to fix, because they ARE fighting as the would against NATO. For better of worse, our Army and Air Force have lots of recent practice. We are mechanically very good. Russia is now getting the "practice" they need to fix their mechanics. They are doing it.
Quote:I don’t think Putin views Ukraine as a vacation spot where he wants a summer home.Totally agree, but ONLY if Ukraine is "successful" in some sense. If Ukraine falls despite our aid, it sends the message to Russia that we are not able to effectively oppose their aggression. It also sends the same message to all of Russia's neighbors. These nations will realize that we can't save them. It will be even worse if Ukraine falls after we stop providing military aid. It will send the further message that you can't trust the US to help you even when they said they would. You fight a long costly war and then they drop you on a whim. Either will be a big problem going forward. These nations will be forced to look for an accommodation with Russia given no viable alternative. The Stans certainly will conclude that. Belarus OTOH is already pretty much toast, so it won't matter to them :-).
Whatever advantages (political, location, natural resources) that Russia gains from bulldozing Ukraine, the West has every reason to deny them from a country where outright war is their means of expansion. (Shades of Hitler overrunning countries) To me, providing financial and military weapons seems cheap)
This last paragraph is probably the most important out of all the stuff that has been posted. Sometimes you have to play a bad hand, and then if you play the bad hand badly it gets worse,. I don't think you can see\\ay we have done things anywhere near the way we should have done them. It is what it is and the impact of all of this is most likely to be felt by more than the current generation.
