[lex24]

[tweet]https://x.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1781923869529633115?s=46[/tweet]

The tweet is in Ukrainian, but google translate does a good job. No insight there that Goose can’t provide, but I think it is correct. This will likely be the last “big” US aid package, barring something surprising in November, so all it does is buy time for the EU to get its act together and Ukraine to develop a military industrial complex. Just out of curiosity, how hard would it be for Ukraine to set up a shell factory (my guess is not easy or it would have been done already), because the Ukrainians would be nothing if not motivated if we can provide the expertise to help them get it up and running, and I would think two years would be adequate time to do so. Teach a man to fish and all that.

BC

BC, do you mean the last big aid package until after the elections or the last aid package ever, even in 2025. If the latter, Ukraine should basically give up now. Either that or figure out a way to win this summer.

Ukraine is and has been trying to re-establish the ability to supply itself with ordinance. There are "joint ventures" all over Eastern Europe. This approach is being used because Russia can't attack ammunition factories in say Bulgaria because they are in NATO. If they were built in Ukraine, they wouldn't last long unless they came equipped with a couple of Patriot batteries. Building up the Ukrainian arms industry would be a daunting task even in peacetime where all the money and skilled labor was not in demand by other critical functions. It is improbable these joint ventures will deliver significant ordinance in the near term, if ever. Maybe in a few years. These eastern European countries aren't exactly manufacturing titans in the first place. Teaching a man to fish while he is drowning is real hard, even if that man has good intentions :-).

Europe in it's wildest dreams doesn't have the ability to supply adequate ordinance to Ukraine. Look at the trajectory of their famous "1 million shells" program. The EU simply doesn't have the manufacturing available to do it, even if fully committed. The US is better off in this regard. Not great, but better off. We also have immense stockpiles compared to Europe. We can take lots of 155 mm out of stock for Ukraine and still have plenty left. Europe cannot. Like it or not, the US is still very much "the arsenal of democracy". If we don't play, it will be a very short game. Given unanimity of purpose, Europe could in two or three years set up ordinance manufacturing to a very high level. Consider the new Rheinmetall plant being built in the Netherlands. It was started last year with the expectation of producing product in 2025.

The US has been slow to react and evaluate what needs to be be done to prepare us for the possible scenarios in 2025 and later. There are all kinds of reasons for this. We have done a very poor job of getting ready for even the relatively foreseeable "next". Europe has arguably done worse. They had further to go, so the knock-on effects are multiplied. Bad as we are, we remain the only viable vendor.

Goose,

I appreciate your analysis.  But is there anyway Ukraine wins?  And if so, what does that look like.  Personally, I fear if Putin smells defeat he will go to “tactical” nukes.

[lex24]

[tweet]https://x.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1781923869529633115?s=46[/tweet]

The tweet is in Ukrainian, but google translate does a good job. No insight there that Goose can’t provide, but I think it is correct. This will likely be the last “big” US aid package, barring something surprising in November, so all it does is buy time for the EU to get its act together and Ukraine to develop a military industrial complex. Just out of curiosity, how hard would it be for Ukraine to set up a shell factory (my guess is not easy or it would have been done already), because the Ukrainians would be nothing if not motivated if we can provide the expertise to help them get it up and running, and I would think two years would be adequate time to do so. Teach a man to fish and all that.

BC

BC, do you mean the last big aid package until after the elections or the last aid package ever, even in 2025. If the latter, Ukraine should basically give up now. Either that or figure out a way to win this summer.

Ukraine is and has been trying to re-establish the ability to supply itself with ordinance. There are "joint ventures" all over Eastern Europe. This approach is being used because Russia can't attack ammunition factories in say Bulgaria because they are in NATO. If they were built in Ukraine, they wouldn't last long unless they came equipped with a couple of Patriot batteries. Building up the Ukrainian arms industry would be a daunting task even in peacetime where all the money and skilled labor was not in demand by other critical functions. It is improbable these joint ventures will deliver significant ordinance in the near term, if ever. Maybe in a few years. These eastern European countries aren't exactly manufacturing titans in the first place. Teaching a man to fish while he is drowning is real hard, even if that man has good intentions :-).

Europe in it's wildest dreams doesn't have the ability to supply adequate ordinance to Ukraine. Look at the trajectory of their famous "1 million shells" program. The EU simply doesn't have the manufacturing available to do it, even if fully committed. The US is better off in this regard. Not great, but better off. We also have immense stockpiles compared to Europe. We can take lots of 155 mm out of stock for Ukraine and still have plenty left. Europe cannot. Like it or not, the US is still very much "the arsenal of democracy". If we don't play, it will be a very short game. Given unanimity of purpose, Europe could in two or three years set up ordinance manufacturing to a very high level. Consider the new Rheinmetall plant being built in the Netherlands. It was started last year with the expectation of producing product in 2025.

The US has been slow to react and evaluate what needs to be be done to prepare us for the possible scenarios in 2025 and later. There are all kinds of reasons for this. We have done a very poor job of getting ready for even the relatively foreseeable "next". Europe has arguably done worse. They had further to go, so the knock-on effects are multiplied. Bad as we are, we remain the only viable vendor.

Goose,

I appreciate your analysis.  But is there anyway Ukraine wins?  And if so, what does that look like.  Personally, I fear if Putin smells defeat he will go to “tactical” nukes.