[Goose]

Good article with very nice satellite images from the recent Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the Russian Dzhankoi airbase in Crimea. The Russian S-400 system apparently unable to defend itself. 

https://www.twz.com/news-features/major-...ian-attack

Hopefully Ukraine gets many more soon with this new aid package, and hopefully at very depreciated prices, like zero for the "obsolete" ATACMS used here to great effect. And hopefully longer range variants and many of those as well, though I'm sure Ukraine will want the bulk of the aid in air defense missiles and 155mm shells.

I like the images a lot! Thanks for finding them. One very important thing it shows us that indeed the S-400 system was at least configured as an operational unit and was not there for repair. This base contains a depot maintenance facility for these systems and some of the systems destroyed/damaged were probably undergoing repair/maintenance. The apparently operational S-400 was indeed unable to defend itself. Not really surprising. Russia advertises lots of capabilities for their systems that cause us in the west to ask "How do they do that with this hardware?". Sometimes Russia surprises us and has some really clever solution to a problem that is superior to anything we have imagined. Fortunately, this doesn't happen often. It does require us to "research" the situation, that's for sure.

Also totally agree with your belief that the Patriot missiles and the 155 mm munitions are the most important part of the current aid package. The Patriots do have a definite tactical purpose and will cut down on the Russian ability to pummel Ukraine. It won't eliminate it however, and IMO the greatest impact of the Patriots will be political, not tactical. Ukraine needs to know that we are now and will in the future stand behind them. The Patriots are a message that we will. The population of Ukraine also needs to believe they are not absolutely helpless against Russia, and the Patriots demonstrate they aren't with every successful intercept.

The 155 mm munitions are IMO the most important part of the package, by far. The Ukrainians can't withstand endless uncontested shelling by Russian artillery. It is the ultimate form of attrition. You have to man the defenses to prevent Russian infantry attacks from succeeding, but if you do man them some percentage of your troops die every day. The Russian infantry doesn't need to attack. They simply need to pose the threat of an attack. If Ukraine has the 155 mm munitions it can destroy the Russian artillery, or at a minimum make it move around a lot. It creates a symmetrical situation where neither Russia nor Ukraine can just sit there and absorb the losses. They both must develop a strategy that allows them to control their losses. We hope Ukraine can do that better than Russia does. There is lots of reason, based on past history, to believe that is the case.

Then, we can talk about ATACMS :-).

[Goose]

Good article with very nice satellite images from the recent Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the Russian Dzhankoi airbase in Crimea. The Russian S-400 system apparently unable to defend itself. 

https://www.twz.com/news-features/major-...ian-attack

Hopefully Ukraine gets many more soon with this new aid package, and hopefully at very depreciated prices, like zero for the "obsolete" ATACMS used here to great effect. And hopefully longer range variants and many of those as well, though I'm sure Ukraine will want the bulk of the aid in air defense missiles and 155mm shells.

I like the images a lot! Thanks for finding them. One very important thing it shows us that indeed the S-400 system was at least configured as an operational unit and was not there for repair. This base contains a depot maintenance facility for these systems and some of the systems destroyed/damaged were probably undergoing repair/maintenance. The apparently operational S-400 was indeed unable to defend itself. Not really surprising. Russia advertises lots of capabilities for their systems that cause us in the west to ask "How do they do that with this hardware?". Sometimes Russia surprises us and has some really clever solution to a problem that is superior to anything we have imagined. Fortunately, this doesn't happen often. It does require us to "research" the situation, that's for sure.

Also totally agree with your belief that the Patriot missiles and the 155 mm munitions are the most important part of the current aid package. The Patriots do have a definite tactical purpose and will cut down on the Russian ability to pummel Ukraine. It won't eliminate it however, and IMO the greatest impact of the Patriots will be political, not tactical. Ukraine needs to know that we are now and will in the future stand behind them. The Patriots are a message that we will. The population of Ukraine also needs to believe they are not absolutely helpless against Russia, and the Patriots demonstrate they aren't with every successful intercept.

The 155 mm munitions are IMO the most important part of the package, by far. The Ukrainians can't withstand endless uncontested shelling by Russian artillery. It is the ultimate form of attrition. You have to man the defenses to prevent Russian infantry attacks from succeeding, but if you do man them some percentage of your troops die every day. The Russian infantry doesn't need to attack. They simply need to pose the threat of an attack. If Ukraine has the 155 mm munitions it can destroy the Russian artillery, or at a minimum make it move around a lot. It creates a symmetrical situation where neither Russia nor Ukraine can just sit there and absorb the losses. They both must develop a strategy that allows them to control their losses. We hope Ukraine can do that better than Russia does. There is lots of reason, based on past history, to believe that is the case.

Then, we can talk about ATACMS :-).