[lex24]

I’m

Sad truth is this team just isn't talented enough to be a realistic contender.  

Sure if things had broken their way with Wiggins and Klay being less awful the first few months, less Draymond drama, etc , maybe we win 5 more games and get a sixth seed and Steph isn't quite as gassed in the playoffs, but to what end? This was still a first or second round exit team as their ceiling. Quick exercise: Go through the teams in order in the standings and find the first team that has a worse number 2 option then the Warriors. In my view you have to drop all the way to the Nets in the East, and Jazz in the West, so at least 22 teams have a better 2nd option then the Ws.  

If you want to be even a fringe contender without a real #2, you need an MVP caliber #1 + great depth (see Jokic in 2022 for what an MVP with no depth gets you, namely a first round exit). We actually have pretty solid depth, but Steph is no longer a consistent top 5 player at this stage in his career. 

I could see the offseason playing out in 3 main ways. 

1. We get lucky and land a big fish. 

We go big game hunting and actually find someone who can move the needle. Maybe Clippers get knocked out early and we can get Paul George. Maybe Lakers get swept and Lebron decides he and steph should team up rather than both be on mediocre teams. Maybe Donovan Mitchell wants to play with steph (indications are he is new york bound).  Giannis is the dream, but just can't see it happening. Even if he wants out, other teams can offer a lot more then we can. 

In this case we almost certainly trade some combination of Kuminga + picks + some of the youth movement, but at least have a shot to be in contention. Depending on salaries, it may require moving Wiggins and using CP3s non-guarenteed contract to line things up. Personally, I am intrigued by Kuminga but that's about it. I would happily trade him for any true star that fits our team (i.e. not Trae Young)

2. We whiff on the big fish and tinker around the edges. 

This is sadly the most likely scenario. Maybe we make a run at a second tier star like Mikhail Bridges or Dejountay Murray, but probably not enough to really put us in contention. More likely we resign Klay, CP3 leaves, we bring in a few low priced free agents, and ride it out with the core while staying under the luxury tax to give some more future flexibility. This team is sadly going nowhere unless Kuminga becomes a star, Wiggins wakes up and decides he loves basketball, and the rookies take a big step forwards. 

3. The band breaks up. 

In this scenario, Klay signs elsewhere and that opens up the floodgates. We miss out on signing any real difference maker, and decide to instead tear down and rebuild from scratch around Kuminga and the rookies. We dump Draymond and Wiggins salaries (i believe we could move them, but won't get back much in return), and either let Steph ride it out as the tank commander or (with his blessing) trade him to a contender.  If there was no emotion involved and the goal is to get back to title contention (assuming we miss out on the big fish), then trading Steph for a haul is the right move. In practice, Steph is the franchise (and keeps butts in high priced seats), so you let him decide.

My obvious preference is scenario 1, but think its unlikely. Stars usually want to join the team that is on the cusp of contention that they will push over the edge, and we are just too far away.

2 is the worst option, as you suggest.    Just pushes the inevitable down the road for another year.  3 is impossible.  Fans would be coming out with pitchforks.  

Agree 1 is unlikely.  

They should let Klay go.  He’s a 20 minute a game bench player.  Catch and shoot option off the bench.  Age and especially injuries have taken away his defense.  He once was a strong defender.  He now is a defensive liability.  He never was great off the dribble.  But now he really can’t beat defenders.  He’s 10-60 in their last 4 elimination games.  Not because he “chokes”.  He’s had too many big games in important games to suggest that.  Defense tightens in the playoffs.  Especially in elimination games.  Less room to get his shot off. 

Klay has been a great Warrior.  But it’s time.  

Dunleavy has his work cut out.

The problem with letting Klay go is with our cap situation we can't bring in someone to replace him. It saves Lacob money and may give us a bit more flexibility under the tax (full Mid level exception) but that's about it. 

I agree with your assessment of Klay as a 15-20 min bench guy at this point, but losing him still makes us worse. I'm ok with bringing him back at a reasonable number so long as it doesn't clog up our cap after Steph's contract ends in 2 years. Maybe 2/30. I wouldn't break the bank to sign him if someone else offers him a much bigger deal.

I don’t purport to understand the NBA contract/cap/salary issues. It’s more complicated than the Rule Against Perpetuities.

[lex24]

I’m

Sad truth is this team just isn't talented enough to be a realistic contender.  

Sure if things had broken their way with Wiggins and Klay being less awful the first few months, less Draymond drama, etc , maybe we win 5 more games and get a sixth seed and Steph isn't quite as gassed in the playoffs, but to what end? This was still a first or second round exit team as their ceiling. Quick exercise: Go through the teams in order in the standings and find the first team that has a worse number 2 option then the Warriors. In my view you have to drop all the way to the Nets in the East, and Jazz in the West, so at least 22 teams have a better 2nd option then the Ws.  

If you want to be even a fringe contender without a real #2, you need an MVP caliber #1 + great depth (see Jokic in 2022 for what an MVP with no depth gets you, namely a first round exit). We actually have pretty solid depth, but Steph is no longer a consistent top 5 player at this stage in his career. 

I could see the offseason playing out in 3 main ways. 

1. We get lucky and land a big fish. 

We go big game hunting and actually find someone who can move the needle. Maybe Clippers get knocked out early and we can get Paul George. Maybe Lakers get swept and Lebron decides he and steph should team up rather than both be on mediocre teams. Maybe Donovan Mitchell wants to play with steph (indications are he is new york bound).  Giannis is the dream, but just can't see it happening. Even if he wants out, other teams can offer a lot more then we can. 

In this case we almost certainly trade some combination of Kuminga + picks + some of the youth movement, but at least have a shot to be in contention. Depending on salaries, it may require moving Wiggins and using CP3s non-guarenteed contract to line things up. Personally, I am intrigued by Kuminga but that's about it. I would happily trade him for any true star that fits our team (i.e. not Trae Young)

2. We whiff on the big fish and tinker around the edges. 

This is sadly the most likely scenario. Maybe we make a run at a second tier star like Mikhail Bridges or Dejountay Murray, but probably not enough to really put us in contention. More likely we resign Klay, CP3 leaves, we bring in a few low priced free agents, and ride it out with the core while staying under the luxury tax to give some more future flexibility. This team is sadly going nowhere unless Kuminga becomes a star, Wiggins wakes up and decides he loves basketball, and the rookies take a big step forwards. 

3. The band breaks up. 

In this scenario, Klay signs elsewhere and that opens up the floodgates. We miss out on signing any real difference maker, and decide to instead tear down and rebuild from scratch around Kuminga and the rookies. We dump Draymond and Wiggins salaries (i believe we could move them, but won't get back much in return), and either let Steph ride it out as the tank commander or (with his blessing) trade him to a contender.  If there was no emotion involved and the goal is to get back to title contention (assuming we miss out on the big fish), then trading Steph for a haul is the right move. In practice, Steph is the franchise (and keeps butts in high priced seats), so you let him decide.

My obvious preference is scenario 1, but think its unlikely. Stars usually want to join the team that is on the cusp of contention that they will push over the edge, and we are just too far away.

2 is the worst option, as you suggest.    Just pushes the inevitable down the road for another year.  3 is impossible.  Fans would be coming out with pitchforks.  

Agree 1 is unlikely.  

They should let Klay go.  He’s a 20 minute a game bench player.  Catch and shoot option off the bench.  Age and especially injuries have taken away his defense.  He once was a strong defender.  He now is a defensive liability.  He never was great off the dribble.  But now he really can’t beat defenders.  He’s 10-60 in their last 4 elimination games.  Not because he “chokes”.  He’s had too many big games in important games to suggest that.  Defense tightens in the playoffs.  Especially in elimination games.  Less room to get his shot off. 

Klay has been a great Warrior.  But it’s time.  

Dunleavy has his work cut out.

The problem with letting Klay go is with our cap situation we can't bring in someone to replace him. It saves Lacob money and may give us a bit more flexibility under the tax (full Mid level exception) but that's about it. 

I agree with your assessment of Klay as a 15-20 min bench guy at this point, but losing him still makes us worse. I'm ok with bringing him back at a reasonable number so long as it doesn't clog up our cap after Steph's contract ends in 2 years. Maybe 2/30. I wouldn't break the bank to sign him if someone else offers him a much bigger deal.

I don’t purport to understand the NBA contract/cap/salary issues. It’s more complicated than the Rule Against Perpetuities.