04-15-2024, 08:29 PM
(04-15-2024, 04:53 PM)GK3 Wrote: I see the point of no making public declaration of a red line, but if you don't more or less let it be known what the red line is, someone may make a decision triggering the red line when they didn't really want to do that.I fully agree. I fear the administration hasn't actually figured out where the "red line(s)", if there are any. For that reason they have probably give the Israelis equivocations and mush. I could be wrong, but when one thinks about it setting up red lines involves a lot of guessing abot both Israel's and Iran's plans. Not easy to do.
Quote:Israel and Iran are playing with fire and I am not sure either side knows when to let go or is even willing to let go. Iran did give Israel an offramp and it all probably depends on who holds sway in Israeli government.Agree.
Quote:If Israel's next act is to again attack Iran itself, in whatever form, then things could get messy. Strikes against Iranian client states might not cause a response.IMO Israel doesn't want to occupy Gaza one second more than they have to. They tried that once before and it didn't work. There is no way they are going to drive out all Palestinians. The world community (and the Palestinians) won't let them do it. IMO what Israel wants is 1) Ideally Egypt takes over governance of Gaza possibly supported by money from other Arab States, the US, and the UN. UNRWA would ideally not be involved but Israel may accept their presence 2) A consortium of other Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, UAE and Bahrain takes over governance and all (that haven't already) accept Israels right to exist. Both these alternatives keep Iran out of Gaza, which all these actors very much desire. Both solutions are IMO long shots, but that is what IMO Israel desires. The third option isn't at all Israels favorite, but that would be to install a rejuvenated Palestinian Authority as the governing authority, funded by the same actors plus Israel itself. Good luck to them. As you say
Other questions I have is how does Israel plan to deal with what is left of Gaza. I think they would like to force all resident's of Gaza to leave and to absorb Gaza into Israel. Not sure they can get away with that one internationally, but then I am not sure they care. I think they will have as much luck destroying Hamas as we had destroying Al Queda. If they don't take over Gaza, they will still have to occupy it for a long while and there will be a cost to that in the long term.
it is a tough game to play in and an even tougher game to get out of.
