04-15-2024, 04:53 PM
(04-15-2024, 02:38 PM)Goose Wrote:I see the point of no making public declaration of a red line, but if you don't more or less let it be known what the red line is, someone may make a decision triggering the red line when they didn't really want to do that. Israel and Iran are playing with fire and I am not sure either side knows when to let go or is even willing to let go. Iran did give Israel an offramp and it all probably depends on who holds sway in Israeli government.(04-15-2024, 01:27 PM)GK3 Wrote: I hope there is a Red line somewhere in this mess, but I am increasingly of the opinion there isn't one that has been clearly defined by the US. It seems to me that the two sides are locked into a continually escalating game of "Get Even". When Israel attacked the Iranian Embassy in Syria, it upped the level of the Get Even game. Now Iran had to attack Israel in some way. It elected a way that I am sure they felt wouldn't do too much damage but that they could point to as them taking action. Here is where cooler heads need to step in. Another Get Even attack, this one almost certainly bigger and better than the attack on the embassy will only require the same from Iran. Their role of leaders in the Jihad against Israel is at stake. As we showed after 9/11, the game of Get Even is very hard to win.All true. One problem with making a "public declaration of a red line" is that you have to actually be willing act if it is crossed. As we have seen in Syria, that can be an even bigger problem. That is why a policy of "strategic ambiguity" is often the only possible public position. You are of course correct about the "Get Even game. Iran gave Israel an off ramp. Lets hope they take it. Lets also hope that Iran doesn't regard Israel's next "hostile act" (which will inherently come in any case) as a response to the recent attack by Iran.
If Israel's next act is to again attack Iran itself, in whatever form, then things could get messy. Strikes against Iranian client states might not cause a response.
Other questions I have is how does Israel plan to deal with what is left of Gaza. I think they would like to force all resident's of Gaza to leave and to absorb Gaza into Israel. Not sure they can get away with that one internationally, but then I am not sure they care. I think they will have as much luck destroying Hamas as we had destroying Al Queda. If they don't take over Gaza, they will still have to occupy it for a long while and there will be a cost to that in the long term.
There will be a certain political cost to those running Israel if these non state actors continue to launch drones and missles and force Israel to more or less stay on a war footing for a long time. It is a tough game to play in and an even tougher game to get out of.
