[Goose]

It may be that Russia is improving in their ability to deploy their glide bombs, but I don't think it's disputable that the Ukrainian air defense system is much more leaky. Their percentage of interception is lessened for cruise missiles and ballistic missiles and drones, and Russia is having more success hitting high value targets even in the most heavily defended rear cities like Odessa and Kyiv.

And like I mentioned Russia seems to be able to fly their Orlan type surveillance drones over cities closer to the front, like Sumy and Zaporhizia, where previously these would be shot down by lower end, IE not Patriot, Ukrainian missile systems. This certainly increases the effect of Russian glide bombs.

I don't at all disagree with what you say about Ukrainian capabilities being reduced. However there is another overriding factor IMO. The Russian air force is now operating on a much larger scale which stretches Ukrainian capabilities beyond what they could do even at their previous strength. They only have so many SAM launchers to position. After that, they have none. Russia is flying MORE Orlans more aggressively and are coordinating their recon with their strike force. They didn't do that before. Russia loses a few drones, maybe quite a few, in quick succession. Eventually Ukraine is locally out of missiles but Russia is not out of drones. Then their strike (which has been drilling holes in the sky over occupied/Russian territory) goes in. In some cities, they may fail. In others, they won't. They will also be back the next day. They have learned. They always had the assets to do this, from day one. They didn't have the skill and/or the will. Now they do.

[Goose]

It may be that Russia is improving in their ability to deploy their glide bombs, but I don't think it's disputable that the Ukrainian air defense system is much more leaky. Their percentage of interception is lessened for cruise missiles and ballistic missiles and drones, and Russia is having more success hitting high value targets even in the most heavily defended rear cities like Odessa and Kyiv.

And like I mentioned Russia seems to be able to fly their Orlan type surveillance drones over cities closer to the front, like Sumy and Zaporhizia, where previously these would be shot down by lower end, IE not Patriot, Ukrainian missile systems. This certainly increases the effect of Russian glide bombs.

I don't at all disagree with what you say about Ukrainian capabilities being reduced. However there is another overriding factor IMO. The Russian air force is now operating on a much larger scale which stretches Ukrainian capabilities beyond what they could do even at their previous strength. They only have so many SAM launchers to position. After that, they have none. Russia is flying MORE Orlans more aggressively and are coordinating their recon with their strike force. They didn't do that before. Russia loses a few drones, maybe quite a few, in quick succession. Eventually Ukraine is locally out of missiles but Russia is not out of drones. Then their strike (which has been drilling holes in the sky over occupied/Russian territory) goes in. In some cities, they may fail. In others, they won't. They will also be back the next day. They have learned. They always had the assets to do this, from day one. They didn't have the skill and/or the will. Now they do.