[Mick]

Preseason projections: Jim Bowden of the Athletic pegs the Giants as the 19th best out of the 30 MLB teams, says there's an average MLB player at every position except shortstop. 

The latest PECOTA analysis projects the Giants to win 85 games, only behind the Dodgers and Braves in the NL.

FanGraphs pegs the Giants at 83 wins, tied with the D'Backs and Cardinals and just behind the Phillies at 85. FanGraphs had the Giants at 80.7 prior to the Chapman signing which upgraded the Giants to 81.5 and adding Snell pushed their projection to 83.4. FanGraphs has nine teams projected to win between 80 and 85 games. One will win the NL Central, the others will fight for the three wild cards.

Giants spent almost $200 million on free agents last year and more than $320 million this off-season. 79 wins last season, removal of many deadwood players, addition of Soler, Ray, Hicks, Chapman, Snell, Lee, Murphy, Ahmed and continued maturation of Bailey, Winn, Harrison, Beck and other youngsters and (hopefully) physical improvement of Conforto, Yaz, Hjelle, etc.  

All that for an additional 4 to 6 projected wins.

Bowden was only ranking the lineup.  Not overall.  Giants pitching should be in or near the top 5.  Defense is so much better.  


Not a big “projections” fan.  But 4 to 6 wins is a big deal when you are in a pack of about 6 or 7 teams vying for 3 WC spots.  

The other aspect is they have, I think, increased the excitement level.  This should be a much more fun team to watch.

So, as Herb Caen once wrote;  “The Giants look good on paper this year.  Unfortunately, they play on grass.”

I’m pretty excited.  More so than in several years.

Same here. They have all the elements in place. I was excited when they signed Lee, really hoped they would get Soler, who mashes the ball at Oracle...I would have been fine with JD Davis, but happier with Chapman. They needed Snell, a necessary and happy surprise. Hicks is an experiment that probably won't work, but worst case he goes back to the bullpen. I don't think Ray can come back this year at full strength, but next year he will. Or maybe he does. The bullpen is already really strong. I think Harrison is poised to break out. It would be nice if Yaz can return to his 2019-2020 form, but I just don't think it's in the cards. He'll be 34 this year. He'll be okay at best. I suspect Estrada/Flores/Wade will be strong. I'm impressed with the pace of Cobb's rehab. Bailey's come back stronger, though he hasn't hit this spring.

As you point out, the real story is the fielding. Giants were the worst in the majors last year, and they have a bunch of ground ball pitchers. In one game, I saw Chapman make two plays in the first four innings that JD Davis couldn't dream of making, and Ahmed made a play that Crawford hasn't been able to make in three years.

I worry, a little bit, about Stanford's players in the Giants system. Beck is on the 60 day DL but has been pitching well. Slater is recovering from elbow surgery, and he's had a tough spring. Started 0 for 7, has gone 2 for 5, three walks. He has 9 strikeouts in 15 plate appearances, but at least he stole a base. Miller got sent down, but I think he'll be back. He was doing well, 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, has done well in the minors.

[Mick]

Preseason projections: Jim Bowden of the Athletic pegs the Giants as the 19th best out of the 30 MLB teams, says there's an average MLB player at every position except shortstop. 

The latest PECOTA analysis projects the Giants to win 85 games, only behind the Dodgers and Braves in the NL.

FanGraphs pegs the Giants at 83 wins, tied with the D'Backs and Cardinals and just behind the Phillies at 85. FanGraphs had the Giants at 80.7 prior to the Chapman signing which upgraded the Giants to 81.5 and adding Snell pushed their projection to 83.4. FanGraphs has nine teams projected to win between 80 and 85 games. One will win the NL Central, the others will fight for the three wild cards.

Giants spent almost $200 million on free agents last year and more than $320 million this off-season. 79 wins last season, removal of many deadwood players, addition of Soler, Ray, Hicks, Chapman, Snell, Lee, Murphy, Ahmed and continued maturation of Bailey, Winn, Harrison, Beck and other youngsters and (hopefully) physical improvement of Conforto, Yaz, Hjelle, etc.  

All that for an additional 4 to 6 projected wins.

Bowden was only ranking the lineup.  Not overall.  Giants pitching should be in or near the top 5.  Defense is so much better.  


Not a big “projections” fan.  But 4 to 6 wins is a big deal when you are in a pack of about 6 or 7 teams vying for 3 WC spots.  

The other aspect is they have, I think, increased the excitement level.  This should be a much more fun team to watch.

So, as Herb Caen once wrote;  “The Giants look good on paper this year.  Unfortunately, they play on grass.”

I’m pretty excited.  More so than in several years.

Same here. They have all the elements in place. I was excited when they signed Lee, really hoped they would get Soler, who mashes the ball at Oracle...I would have been fine with JD Davis, but happier with Chapman. They needed Snell, a necessary and happy surprise. Hicks is an experiment that probably won't work, but worst case he goes back to the bullpen. I don't think Ray can come back this year at full strength, but next year he will. Or maybe he does. The bullpen is already really strong. I think Harrison is poised to break out. It would be nice if Yaz can return to his 2019-2020 form, but I just don't think it's in the cards. He'll be 34 this year. He'll be okay at best. I suspect Estrada/Flores/Wade will be strong. I'm impressed with the pace of Cobb's rehab. Bailey's come back stronger, though he hasn't hit this spring.

As you point out, the real story is the fielding. Giants were the worst in the majors last year, and they have a bunch of ground ball pitchers. In one game, I saw Chapman make two plays in the first four innings that JD Davis couldn't dream of making, and Ahmed made a play that Crawford hasn't been able to make in three years.

I worry, a little bit, about Stanford's players in the Giants system. Beck is on the 60 day DL but has been pitching well. Slater is recovering from elbow surgery, and he's had a tough spring. Started 0 for 7, has gone 2 for 5, three walks. He has 9 strikeouts in 15 plate appearances, but at least he stole a base. Miller got sent down, but I think he'll be back. He was doing well, 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, has done well in the minors.