[Goose]

I wonder if the new Ukrainian offense against Russia's Oil and Gas Industry will pay off. It certainly seems to be impacting a portion of the civilian sector, and could impact the Military's ability to fuel its planes, tanks and trucks. I doubt Russia has the ability to defend all those oil and gas installations and Ukraine is showing a rather amazing ability to design and produce cheap one way drones which do not need a big payload to turn a refinery or tank farm into an inferno. Plus I think Russia has only 5 ports within its own territory for shipping oil and gas products.  Ukraine is already hitting at least two of those.

Ukraine is indeed doing a great job disrupting some Russian infrastructure. They are also creating/supporting internal Russian military groups that are causing some havoc in the border areas. Ukraine may be able to do enough damage to actually "matter", but it isn't probable. As previous wars have demonstrated, oil storage and refineries are actually pretty resilient. One thing I would really like to see Ukraine do is develop some "navy" capability outside the Black Sea. Much like Germany in WW I and even more like the South during the Civil War a few ships that operate outside of the country (and in some cases never touched "home waters" in their history) can really cause serious problems. Russia has lots of oil tankers that are "illegally" shipping Russian oil. What if somebody started sinking them? Unlike the UK in WW I and the US in the Civil War, Russia does not have the naval power (sheer numbers of ships) to seek out and destroy commerce raiders. I suspect nobody else is going to "help out" such an effort either. It would make the Houthi's look like amateurs. Literally, lots of "bang for the buck".

I think an end state with Russia in control of Crimea and Ukraine in control of the majority of their present held territory is still the likeliest outcome, with fighting probably for at least a few more years.

That could indeed happen. However IMO it is not a stable end state. Ukraine was the poorest nation (per capita) in Europe before the war. By holding the east cost of Ukraine, Russia has captured the best North-South road and rail routes Ukraine has. They have also captured the industrial exporting (read foreign exchange) manufacturing areas and associated ports in Ukraine. These ports also exported lots of grain. Ukraine's only remaining "decent" port is Odessa, and it isn't all that great as a port (ask the Germans about that). It is also a long way from much of the agricultural areas that used to export through the Sea of Azov. Ukraine has also suffered serious war damage in the rest of the country. It is very questionable whether such a truncated Ukraine would be economically viable. Joining Russia will very quickly become imperative for Ukraine.

Ukraine won't have the manpower or material for another offensive for a while, maybe a year. They need to expand their draft but that will take time. Russia similarly does not have any near term capacity for a decisive offensive.

Basically true, but if Ukraine doesn't get "adequate" artillery ammunition, Russia doesn't need much capacity to just pound the Ukrainian defenses into submission. This puts aside the very real question of what effect this disparity will have on Ukrainian morale. Realizing that you will just be ground up doesn't inspire the desire to fight on to the end.

The expansion of the Ukrainian draft has been politically problematic and is continuing to be so. It is unclear that this expansion will simply "take time". It may be largely impossible. One legitimate reason for this is that the Ukrainian economy needs workers in order to function. There are such things as "critical" occupations. There are also "critical" industries that may not need specialized skills but that do need enough bodies. The other less laudable reason is that there are lots of Ukrainians who don't want to fight. This is understandably true in any war, but it seems Ukraine has a lot of people, particularly younger people, who don't want to be infantry. One reason the average age in the Ukrainian army is so high is that the "older generation" got universal military training, so they kind of have some basic skills. They also had the notion that they "owed" service to the state drilled into them. The younger generations have little of this. Getting drafted was not part of their outlook. While UMT was re-introduced in 2014, it was very, very far from "universal". The Ukrainian state was also far from popular in may circles, for good reason (corruption). It may get sorted out, but it very well may not, at least to the degree required for an indefinite necessity to man the border of what remains of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refineries have definitely been increasing in their frequency and effect. It won't end the war anytime soon but if Ukraine can maintain this sort of tempo in their long range operations, in a year or two the Black Sea Fleet may be completely sunk and Russian refining capacity severely hamstrung. If Russia is still unable to sustain an offensive at that point Putin may finally decide the juice is not worth the squeeze.

If the above happens, Putin will be gone. If Ukraine can hamstring the Russian oil and gas industry, that might be enough for the powers that be to get rid of Putin. As I said above, IMO it is very improbable Ukraine can accomplish this. It is hard enough if you are bombing the crap out of it every other day. Despite the hype about how small drones can destroy a refinery (because they can target vital parts of it), that is yet to be demonstrated in "real life". Even if it does happen,  Putin isn't going to make the rational decision to stop the war. If he were that rational, he wouldn't have started it. If he stops it short of victory (or is compelled to stop by strategic "defeat"), it calls into question "why" it was started and "why" it failed, and politically that would be the end of him.

[Goose]

I wonder if the new Ukrainian offense against Russia's Oil and Gas Industry will pay off. It certainly seems to be impacting a portion of the civilian sector, and could impact the Military's ability to fuel its planes, tanks and trucks. I doubt Russia has the ability to defend all those oil and gas installations and Ukraine is showing a rather amazing ability to design and produce cheap one way drones which do not need a big payload to turn a refinery or tank farm into an inferno. Plus I think Russia has only 5 ports within its own territory for shipping oil and gas products.  Ukraine is already hitting at least two of those.

Ukraine is indeed doing a great job disrupting some Russian infrastructure. They are also creating/supporting internal Russian military groups that are causing some havoc in the border areas. Ukraine may be able to do enough damage to actually "matter", but it isn't probable. As previous wars have demonstrated, oil storage and refineries are actually pretty resilient. One thing I would really like to see Ukraine do is develop some "navy" capability outside the Black Sea. Much like Germany in WW I and even more like the South during the Civil War a few ships that operate outside of the country (and in some cases never touched "home waters" in their history) can really cause serious problems. Russia has lots of oil tankers that are "illegally" shipping Russian oil. What if somebody started sinking them? Unlike the UK in WW I and the US in the Civil War, Russia does not have the naval power (sheer numbers of ships) to seek out and destroy commerce raiders. I suspect nobody else is going to "help out" such an effort either. It would make the Houthi's look like amateurs. Literally, lots of "bang for the buck".

I think an end state with Russia in control of Crimea and Ukraine in control of the majority of their present held territory is still the likeliest outcome, with fighting probably for at least a few more years.

That could indeed happen. However IMO it is not a stable end state. Ukraine was the poorest nation (per capita) in Europe before the war. By holding the east cost of Ukraine, Russia has captured the best North-South road and rail routes Ukraine has. They have also captured the industrial exporting (read foreign exchange) manufacturing areas and associated ports in Ukraine. These ports also exported lots of grain. Ukraine's only remaining "decent" port is Odessa, and it isn't all that great as a port (ask the Germans about that). It is also a long way from much of the agricultural areas that used to export through the Sea of Azov. Ukraine has also suffered serious war damage in the rest of the country. It is very questionable whether such a truncated Ukraine would be economically viable. Joining Russia will very quickly become imperative for Ukraine.

Ukraine won't have the manpower or material for another offensive for a while, maybe a year. They need to expand their draft but that will take time. Russia similarly does not have any near term capacity for a decisive offensive.

Basically true, but if Ukraine doesn't get "adequate" artillery ammunition, Russia doesn't need much capacity to just pound the Ukrainian defenses into submission. This puts aside the very real question of what effect this disparity will have on Ukrainian morale. Realizing that you will just be ground up doesn't inspire the desire to fight on to the end.

The expansion of the Ukrainian draft has been politically problematic and is continuing to be so. It is unclear that this expansion will simply "take time". It may be largely impossible. One legitimate reason for this is that the Ukrainian economy needs workers in order to function. There are such things as "critical" occupations. There are also "critical" industries that may not need specialized skills but that do need enough bodies. The other less laudable reason is that there are lots of Ukrainians who don't want to fight. This is understandably true in any war, but it seems Ukraine has a lot of people, particularly younger people, who don't want to be infantry. One reason the average age in the Ukrainian army is so high is that the "older generation" got universal military training, so they kind of have some basic skills. They also had the notion that they "owed" service to the state drilled into them. The younger generations have little of this. Getting drafted was not part of their outlook. While UMT was re-introduced in 2014, it was very, very far from "universal". The Ukrainian state was also far from popular in may circles, for good reason (corruption). It may get sorted out, but it very well may not, at least to the degree required for an indefinite necessity to man the border of what remains of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refineries have definitely been increasing in their frequency and effect. It won't end the war anytime soon but if Ukraine can maintain this sort of tempo in their long range operations, in a year or two the Black Sea Fleet may be completely sunk and Russian refining capacity severely hamstrung. If Russia is still unable to sustain an offensive at that point Putin may finally decide the juice is not worth the squeeze.

If the above happens, Putin will be gone. If Ukraine can hamstring the Russian oil and gas industry, that might be enough for the powers that be to get rid of Putin. As I said above, IMO it is very improbable Ukraine can accomplish this. It is hard enough if you are bombing the crap out of it every other day. Despite the hype about how small drones can destroy a refinery (because they can target vital parts of it), that is yet to be demonstrated in "real life". Even if it does happen,  Putin isn't going to make the rational decision to stop the war. If he were that rational, he wouldn't have started it. If he stops it short of victory (or is compelled to stop by strategic "defeat"), it calls into question "why" it was started and "why" it failed, and politically that would be the end of him.