[Bruce Wang]

ESPN ran the Ducks and the Card through the NCAA 2013 game simulator (even had Hogan as QB).  Stanford kept it close at the half but lost it by 21 points in the end.  Final score was Oregon 40-something, Stanford 20-something.

I saw a chart that says a 21 point spread translates into a 5% probability of winning for the underdog.  My gut tells me that we at least cover.

My simplified thinking is that the Stanford defense has never been better, but the Oregon offense has never been better either.  So a wash when the Ducks have the ball.  The question is whether the Duck's injuries on defense offsets by a brobdingnagian degree the so far much less than expected dropoff from Luck to Hogan running the offense.

For this exercise, I will do what I do in my day job when asked to put together a forecast and just use what the futures markets says.  Here I did the quick math and Vegas is expecting the following score: Oregon 43, Stanford 23.

[Bruce Wang]

ESPN ran the Ducks and the Card through the NCAA 2013 game simulator (even had Hogan as QB).  Stanford kept it close at the half but lost it by 21 points in the end.  Final score was Oregon 40-something, Stanford 20-something.

I saw a chart that says a 21 point spread translates into a 5% probability of winning for the underdog.  My gut tells me that we at least cover.

My simplified thinking is that the Stanford defense has never been better, but the Oregon offense has never been better either.  So a wash when the Ducks have the ball.  The question is whether the Duck's injuries on defense offsets by a brobdingnagian degree the so far much less than expected dropoff from Luck to Hogan running the offense.

For this exercise, I will do what I do in my day job when asked to put together a forecast and just use what the futures markets says.  Here I did the quick math and Vegas is expecting the following score: Oregon 43, Stanford 23.