[Goose]

NYT on F16s for Ukraine

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/world...ilots.html

The jets are ready, and the flight instructors are waiting, at a new training center in Romania that was created to teach Ukraine’s pilots to fly the F-16 warplane. But there’s a catch: The Ukrainian pilots have yet to arrive, despite declarations last summer that the center would play a crucial role in getting them into the air to defend their country from increasingly deadly Russian strikes.

It’s still unclear when Ukrainian pilots will begin training at the center, at the Fetesti air base in southeast Romania, which NATO allies also are using to get schooled on the fighter jets. But the delay is a window into the confusion and chaos that has confronted the military alliance’s rush to supply the F-16s.

That is not to say that Ukraine’s pilots are not being prepared. Twelve pilots so far — fewer than a full squadron — are expected to be ready to fly F-16s in combat by this summer after 10 months of training in Denmark, Britain and the United States.

The fact there are no Ukrainian pilots training at Fetesti yet is almost certainly due to the base not being ready to begin training them. Standing up an entirely new training center is a difficult process. The school was officially opened on 13 November 2023 and the first class is 7(!) Romanian pilots. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RoAF_86th_Air_Base. It is clear this operation (cobbled together from disparate sources many of which have limited or no F-16 expertise) is not going to be training large classes of pilots anytime real soon.

But by the time the pilots return to Ukraine, as few as six F-16s will have been delivered out of about 45 of the fighter jets that European allies have promised.

......

By normal standards, the training of Ukraine’s pilots on the sophisticated Western jets has proceeded at lightning speed, compressing years of classroom learning, simulations and flight exercises into months.

Even so, it is moving more slowly than Ukraine or its allies had hoped, as pilots trained on Soviet-era planes and tactics have had to get up to speed on the English language and Western military practices to make effective use of the F-16s.

........

But American officials have warned that the F-16s alone would not be decisive in the war, and that, at any rate, the training would take a considerable amount of time.

It is certainly true that the "conversion training" the "experienced" Ukrainian pilots are undergoing in the US is NOT being done at warp speed. There are good reasons for this. First, as the article points out, these pilots are in large measure not fluent English speakers. Second, they are "converting" from jets that are nothing like the F-16s and will be using tactics and methods totally unlike their previous experience. Teaching a student that is fluent in English and who has flown an F-4 for years is a lot easier task. Third, the F-16 is (as one of the Ukrainians said) a "Swiss Army knife". It does air-to-air, CAS, SEAD, etc. and carries lots of disparate weapons loadouts. The Ukrainian pilots are coming from aircraft the were designed to do one thing. You learned that specialty and nothing more. Now, they have a much bigger syllabus to master. The USAF isn't going to let any half-trained pilots out of their flight school. You will master the syllabus, period. If the Ukrainians can complete the program in "normal" time, that would be fast considering the degree of difficulty. This is the scenario I think we are seeing play out. What will happen at the European schools I have no idea, but I suspect it will not be good.

The US and it's allies are indeed ensuring the introduction of the F-16 into the battle will not be "decisive" because they are training an entirely inadequate number of pilots and are not ensuring that the supply of F-16s will be ready for the few that are being trained. The force will be committed "piecemeal" in small numbers. This is of course a well-known recipe for military failure. At best we will be giving the Russians time to prepare for the threat when it does arrive. Yes, there are limitations on what is "possible", but the US is in no way up against the stops in that regard. I am sure the USAF didn't want to start with a "full class" of Ukrainians until they had done a "test" with a small number. Yes, that approach would be "nice", but it is way too slow. No point in implementing a plan that doesn't meet the need.

“There aren’t very many Ukrainian pilots to be able to pilot those aircraft,” Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, told ABC News last month, defending the Biden administration’s delay in approving plans to send F-16s to the war. “It’s not about whether or not F-16s could possibly have been on the battlefield in the spring of last year.”

Because the national security advisor doesn't want to talk about why we didn't start this training effort two years ago at the start of the war, "just in case".  As I said back then, worst case Ukraine ends up with a lot of qualified airline pilots.

The Ukrainian pilots’ training began last August at Skrydstrup Air Base in southern Denmark, but their deficiencies in language skills and knowledge of Western flying techniques slowed things down. Not until January were the Ukrainian pilots ready to fly, Danish officials said.

........


Like the Ukrainian pilots, Romanian trainees at the base were skilled at flying Soviet- and Russian-made jets when they began the Western courses in November. But unlike the Ukrainians, Romania’s pilots already spoke English and were familiar with NATO operating standards.

.......

About 50 Ukrainian technicians are being trained in Denmark to support and repair the jets and handle their weapons packages, given that the F-16 is so complex that it generally takes eight to 14 people to maintain each one. Officials said Western defense contractors would have to accompany the jets into Ukraine, and remain with them, until there were enough Ukrainian crews to maintain them properly — a process that could take years.

The statement it takes 8 to 14 people to maintain each one is true only by a very broad definition of "true". There are specialists that work on particular parts of the aircraft. Each jet needs access to such a specialist, but not 24/7 or even 8 hours a day. When you need one, you need one, but "several" aircraft can share the same people. Just to be clear, "Western" defense contractors accompany most USAF foreign deployments too. The Ukrainians undoubtedly will need more "help" of this kind, because they lack experienced maintainers that have "seen that before" and know what to do. This is going to be a big problem for a while. It isn't correct that they need to "remain with them until there are enough Ukrainian crews". There will be "enough" at the start, numbers wise,  but their lack of experience will require outside advice until they become comfortable with the jet.

[Goose]

NYT on F16s for Ukraine

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/world...ilots.html

The jets are ready, and the flight instructors are waiting, at a new training center in Romania that was created to teach Ukraine’s pilots to fly the F-16 warplane. But there’s a catch: The Ukrainian pilots have yet to arrive, despite declarations last summer that the center would play a crucial role in getting them into the air to defend their country from increasingly deadly Russian strikes.

It’s still unclear when Ukrainian pilots will begin training at the center, at the Fetesti air base in southeast Romania, which NATO allies also are using to get schooled on the fighter jets. But the delay is a window into the confusion and chaos that has confronted the military alliance’s rush to supply the F-16s.

That is not to say that Ukraine’s pilots are not being prepared. Twelve pilots so far — fewer than a full squadron — are expected to be ready to fly F-16s in combat by this summer after 10 months of training in Denmark, Britain and the United States.

The fact there are no Ukrainian pilots training at Fetesti yet is almost certainly due to the base not being ready to begin training them. Standing up an entirely new training center is a difficult process. The school was officially opened on 13 November 2023 and the first class is 7(!) Romanian pilots. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RoAF_86th_Air_Base. It is clear this operation (cobbled together from disparate sources many of which have limited or no F-16 expertise) is not going to be training large classes of pilots anytime real soon.

But by the time the pilots return to Ukraine, as few as six F-16s will have been delivered out of about 45 of the fighter jets that European allies have promised.

......

By normal standards, the training of Ukraine’s pilots on the sophisticated Western jets has proceeded at lightning speed, compressing years of classroom learning, simulations and flight exercises into months.

Even so, it is moving more slowly than Ukraine or its allies had hoped, as pilots trained on Soviet-era planes and tactics have had to get up to speed on the English language and Western military practices to make effective use of the F-16s.

........

But American officials have warned that the F-16s alone would not be decisive in the war, and that, at any rate, the training would take a considerable amount of time.

It is certainly true that the "conversion training" the "experienced" Ukrainian pilots are undergoing in the US is NOT being done at warp speed. There are good reasons for this. First, as the article points out, these pilots are in large measure not fluent English speakers. Second, they are "converting" from jets that are nothing like the F-16s and will be using tactics and methods totally unlike their previous experience. Teaching a student that is fluent in English and who has flown an F-4 for years is a lot easier task. Third, the F-16 is (as one of the Ukrainians said) a "Swiss Army knife". It does air-to-air, CAS, SEAD, etc. and carries lots of disparate weapons loadouts. The Ukrainian pilots are coming from aircraft the were designed to do one thing. You learned that specialty and nothing more. Now, they have a much bigger syllabus to master. The USAF isn't going to let any half-trained pilots out of their flight school. You will master the syllabus, period. If the Ukrainians can complete the program in "normal" time, that would be fast considering the degree of difficulty. This is the scenario I think we are seeing play out. What will happen at the European schools I have no idea, but I suspect it will not be good.

The US and it's allies are indeed ensuring the introduction of the F-16 into the battle will not be "decisive" because they are training an entirely inadequate number of pilots and are not ensuring that the supply of F-16s will be ready for the few that are being trained. The force will be committed "piecemeal" in small numbers. This is of course a well-known recipe for military failure. At best we will be giving the Russians time to prepare for the threat when it does arrive. Yes, there are limitations on what is "possible", but the US is in no way up against the stops in that regard. I am sure the USAF didn't want to start with a "full class" of Ukrainians until they had done a "test" with a small number. Yes, that approach would be "nice", but it is way too slow. No point in implementing a plan that doesn't meet the need.

“There aren’t very many Ukrainian pilots to be able to pilot those aircraft,” Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, told ABC News last month, defending the Biden administration’s delay in approving plans to send F-16s to the war. “It’s not about whether or not F-16s could possibly have been on the battlefield in the spring of last year.”

Because the national security advisor doesn't want to talk about why we didn't start this training effort two years ago at the start of the war, "just in case".  As I said back then, worst case Ukraine ends up with a lot of qualified airline pilots.

The Ukrainian pilots’ training began last August at Skrydstrup Air Base in southern Denmark, but their deficiencies in language skills and knowledge of Western flying techniques slowed things down. Not until January were the Ukrainian pilots ready to fly, Danish officials said.

........


Like the Ukrainian pilots, Romanian trainees at the base were skilled at flying Soviet- and Russian-made jets when they began the Western courses in November. But unlike the Ukrainians, Romania’s pilots already spoke English and were familiar with NATO operating standards.

.......

About 50 Ukrainian technicians are being trained in Denmark to support and repair the jets and handle their weapons packages, given that the F-16 is so complex that it generally takes eight to 14 people to maintain each one. Officials said Western defense contractors would have to accompany the jets into Ukraine, and remain with them, until there were enough Ukrainian crews to maintain them properly — a process that could take years.

The statement it takes 8 to 14 people to maintain each one is true only by a very broad definition of "true". There are specialists that work on particular parts of the aircraft. Each jet needs access to such a specialist, but not 24/7 or even 8 hours a day. When you need one, you need one, but "several" aircraft can share the same people. Just to be clear, "Western" defense contractors accompany most USAF foreign deployments too. The Ukrainians undoubtedly will need more "help" of this kind, because they lack experienced maintainers that have "seen that before" and know what to do. This is going to be a big problem for a while. It isn't correct that they need to "remain with them until there are enough Ukrainian crews". There will be "enough" at the start, numbers wise,  but their lack of experience will require outside advice until they become comfortable with the jet.