[Goose]

Your speculation is that Ukraine has plenty of spare pilots to be trained. Mine is they don't. I'm pretty sure neither of us really has any special insight into that, so will just have to be another point of disagreement about how feasible Ukraine operating a large number of F16s is by now or near future.

Agree, neither of us can "know" for sure.

I think there are many good reasons why Ukraine is not flying F16s now and why USAF sources have indicated it probably won't be until 2025 that Ukraine is operating F16s in anything more than a cursory role. I don't think will alone would have changed that but I'm certainly no expert.

I am no expert either, but I am fairly familiar with how the USAF "thinks". They are a very "risk averse" organization (believe it or not) and nobody is going to make an aggressive plan to do anything unless they are directly given a requirement to do so. The problem here is that Ukraine very probably will not be around to take advantage of F-16s when everything is "ready" in 2025. Granted, it is never wise to adopt a plan you know can't be executed. However, it is amazing what becomes possible when the USAF understands the problem and is given a date to meet. Obviously, the perfect is the enemy of "good enough", but figuring out what is "good enough" isn't always easy either. I firmly believe that letting the USAF go at the speed they want to go is a mistake, because they institutionally do not want to risk "failure". In a war however that is a luxury they don't have. Ukraine is in a war.

[Goose]

Your speculation is that Ukraine has plenty of spare pilots to be trained. Mine is they don't. I'm pretty sure neither of us really has any special insight into that, so will just have to be another point of disagreement about how feasible Ukraine operating a large number of F16s is by now or near future.

Agree, neither of us can "know" for sure.

I think there are many good reasons why Ukraine is not flying F16s now and why USAF sources have indicated it probably won't be until 2025 that Ukraine is operating F16s in anything more than a cursory role. I don't think will alone would have changed that but I'm certainly no expert.

I am no expert either, but I am fairly familiar with how the USAF "thinks". They are a very "risk averse" organization (believe it or not) and nobody is going to make an aggressive plan to do anything unless they are directly given a requirement to do so. The problem here is that Ukraine very probably will not be around to take advantage of F-16s when everything is "ready" in 2025. Granted, it is never wise to adopt a plan you know can't be executed. However, it is amazing what becomes possible when the USAF understands the problem and is given a date to meet. Obviously, the perfect is the enemy of "good enough", but figuring out what is "good enough" isn't always easy either. I firmly believe that letting the USAF go at the speed they want to go is a mistake, because they institutionally do not want to risk "failure". In a war however that is a luxury they don't have. Ukraine is in a war.