[Goose]

Probably a large part of the problem is that Ukraine doesn't have many pilots they can spare to be out of the country training and not flying combat missions.

I doubt that. Ukraine lost a lot of aircraft on the ground at the beginning of the war. They have relatively few "legacy" aircraft remaining that are able to fly. Probably what they do lack is first-line pilots that are fluent (even minimally) in English. However, it isn't necessary (or even advantageous) to send your "best" pilots to learn the F-16. It is a different aircraft and relatively inexperienced pilots may actually learn it faster because they have nothing to "unlearn". Both the Germans and the Poles found this to be true as they transitioned to Western aircraft. Eventually Poland stopped even trying to transition pilots. It was easier to train "new grads". Ukraine has the bodies. The training path may be long because the pilots lack experience, but willing pilots are available. Even if you have to start them in T-38s, it can be done.

Ukraine needs artillery ammo. F16s would be nice to have.

Totally agree that right now Ukraine needs artillery ammunition much more than it needs anything else. This ammunition is needed to help stop Russian advances right now, today. It also has the advantage that it can be supplied immediately and have effect immediately. I think we all agree that the hold-up of this vital element makes no sense at all unless the West (and the US) intends to totally give up on Ukraine.

However, the F-16s are now unfortunately more than a "nice to have". There are two things that make this true. First, the Russian Air Force is actually starting to fight. This started back in the summer when Ukraine was trying to break through in the south. Helicopters and subsequently aircraft launching glide bombs became a big problem. It wasn't on a scale that was "battle winning" but was big enough that coupled with strong defensive positions Ukraine was not able to maintain an offensive. Recently, around Avdiivka the Russian Air Force became quite active, flying over 200 sorties in one day. Ukraine responded by shooting down a few Russian aircraft. That has deterred the Russian Air Force a bit, but they are still bombing much more aggressively than at any time in the past. Even if Ukraine gets back to something like parity in artillery, the newly active Russian Air Force will be a serious problem, and the more they fly, the better they will get. Ukraine needs to make that not happen, and to do so, they need an Air Force. Missiles won't cut it. IMO the only reason this war didn't end real fast was that the Russian Air Force didn't show up for a couple of years. If it starts doing so (as it appears it is), it is game over for Ukraine unless they have an answer. The only answer even vaguely available is the F-16s. This was Ukraine's stated reason for wanting them.

The second reason the F-16s are not a "nice to have" is very "real" but also partly psychological. Ukraine has pointed out the the offensive they undertook last summer was without the benefit of air superiority, or really any air support at all. In modern war, you need to be able to bomb your opponent to quickly make breeches in the defense that you can exploit (if you want to fight like NATO). Artillery generally can't do that because creating such an artillery concentration (in these days of drone recon) takes time and is impossible to hide. It gives the defense time to prepare. It also has limited range so the opponent can build a second line that artillery cannot reach. Ukraine needs an air force to ever have any hope of driving the Russians out of Ukraine. This is especially true if Russia is able to use their air force to defend their fortified front line. The psychological part of this is that the Ukrainian troops and people believe it to be true that they need this air force. If there is no way to develop a credible air force, the troops and people will simply give up, as there is no path to victory. The F-16s are at least a hope of future success, if not sooner then later. If it becomes clear that path has failed or will not be sustained, the results on morale will be IMO dire.

[Goose]

Probably a large part of the problem is that Ukraine doesn't have many pilots they can spare to be out of the country training and not flying combat missions.

I doubt that. Ukraine lost a lot of aircraft on the ground at the beginning of the war. They have relatively few "legacy" aircraft remaining that are able to fly. Probably what they do lack is first-line pilots that are fluent (even minimally) in English. However, it isn't necessary (or even advantageous) to send your "best" pilots to learn the F-16. It is a different aircraft and relatively inexperienced pilots may actually learn it faster because they have nothing to "unlearn". Both the Germans and the Poles found this to be true as they transitioned to Western aircraft. Eventually Poland stopped even trying to transition pilots. It was easier to train "new grads". Ukraine has the bodies. The training path may be long because the pilots lack experience, but willing pilots are available. Even if you have to start them in T-38s, it can be done.

Ukraine needs artillery ammo. F16s would be nice to have.

Totally agree that right now Ukraine needs artillery ammunition much more than it needs anything else. This ammunition is needed to help stop Russian advances right now, today. It also has the advantage that it can be supplied immediately and have effect immediately. I think we all agree that the hold-up of this vital element makes no sense at all unless the West (and the US) intends to totally give up on Ukraine.

However, the F-16s are now unfortunately more than a "nice to have". There are two things that make this true. First, the Russian Air Force is actually starting to fight. This started back in the summer when Ukraine was trying to break through in the south. Helicopters and subsequently aircraft launching glide bombs became a big problem. It wasn't on a scale that was "battle winning" but was big enough that coupled with strong defensive positions Ukraine was not able to maintain an offensive. Recently, around Avdiivka the Russian Air Force became quite active, flying over 200 sorties in one day. Ukraine responded by shooting down a few Russian aircraft. That has deterred the Russian Air Force a bit, but they are still bombing much more aggressively than at any time in the past. Even if Ukraine gets back to something like parity in artillery, the newly active Russian Air Force will be a serious problem, and the more they fly, the better they will get. Ukraine needs to make that not happen, and to do so, they need an Air Force. Missiles won't cut it. IMO the only reason this war didn't end real fast was that the Russian Air Force didn't show up for a couple of years. If it starts doing so (as it appears it is), it is game over for Ukraine unless they have an answer. The only answer even vaguely available is the F-16s. This was Ukraine's stated reason for wanting them.

The second reason the F-16s are not a "nice to have" is very "real" but also partly psychological. Ukraine has pointed out the the offensive they undertook last summer was without the benefit of air superiority, or really any air support at all. In modern war, you need to be able to bomb your opponent to quickly make breeches in the defense that you can exploit (if you want to fight like NATO). Artillery generally can't do that because creating such an artillery concentration (in these days of drone recon) takes time and is impossible to hide. It gives the defense time to prepare. It also has limited range so the opponent can build a second line that artillery cannot reach. Ukraine needs an air force to ever have any hope of driving the Russians out of Ukraine. This is especially true if Russia is able to use their air force to defend their fortified front line. The psychological part of this is that the Ukrainian troops and people believe it to be true that they need this air force. If there is no way to develop a credible air force, the troops and people will simply give up, as there is no path to victory. The F-16s are at least a hope of future success, if not sooner then later. If it becomes clear that path has failed or will not be sustained, the results on morale will be IMO dire.