[Goose]

There’s safety after the primaries and safety in numbers. By mid-March, a group of ~8 GOP members of congress, showing unity on the issue, will be insulated from attack.

Insulated from attack? Not at all. The attacks will still come. They still have a general election to contest, but what may then be true is that the attacks will be much less effective. If their district is "purple" enough, the attacks will not matter in the general, although they possibly would have in the primaries.

The equation should be simple. It is pretty much accepted that the majority of the public supports military assistance to Ukraine. Therefore, voting that way would get you votes. The problem is that that majority isn't uniform across the country. There are districts where Ukraine aid isn't popular. However there are many more districts where Ukraine aid is at least 50/50 where Trump's condemnation all by itself, no matter what the issue, will cost you votes. These districts are the ones where constituent "yes" pressure may overwhelm the fear of  losing the "mandate of heaven" :-). We need all the votes we can get even to ensure there is a vote at all.

[Goose]

There’s safety after the primaries and safety in numbers. By mid-March, a group of ~8 GOP members of congress, showing unity on the issue, will be insulated from attack.

Insulated from attack? Not at all. The attacks will still come. They still have a general election to contest, but what may then be true is that the attacks will be much less effective. If their district is "purple" enough, the attacks will not matter in the general, although they possibly would have in the primaries.

The equation should be simple. It is pretty much accepted that the majority of the public supports military assistance to Ukraine. Therefore, voting that way would get you votes. The problem is that that majority isn't uniform across the country. There are districts where Ukraine aid isn't popular. However there are many more districts where Ukraine aid is at least 50/50 where Trump's condemnation all by itself, no matter what the issue, will cost you votes. These districts are the ones where constituent "yes" pressure may overwhelm the fear of  losing the "mandate of heaven" :-). We need all the votes we can get even to ensure there is a vote at all.