[Goose]

Many of those Rs believe that Trump will defeat Biden, and Biden's anemic poll numbers reinforce their views.  Why should they risk their careers when they are convinced that the new administration will cut off Ukraine in less than a year?  Ukraine in their minds is already lost, and so there is no reason to "show courage" in a hopeless cause.

To get the Rs in Biden districts, and other residual hawkish Rs on board, Biden will have to start looking more like an 8 year President and Trump will have to start looking like he can't win.  That could happen, but it certainly has not so far. 

In short, the Rs in Congress are behaving very much like Trump and not Biden is the sitting President and likely to be reelected.  Trump is enjoying the benefits usually reserved for an incumbent--at least with his own party.

I would modify your statement above to "Many of those Rs believe that Trump MAY defeat Biden, and Biden's anemic poll numbers reinforce their views.  Why should they risk their careers when they are convinced that the new administration MAY cut off Ukraine in less than a year?". One doesn't have to believe it is a certainty or even more probable than not to question taking a risk. It comes down to "Which is more risky, voting for Ukraine aid or doing nothing?". Doing nothing looks way better to many.

IMO there is a much more proximate problem that worries Rs who might/do support Ukraine aid even more than who wins the presidential election. They too face an election, and whether Trump wins in November or not, he will FOR CERTAIN condemn anybody who votes for Ukraine aid RIGHT NOW. This poses an immediate loss of votes and subsequent loss of job for Rs both in the primary and in the general (if they get that far). IMO these Rs need to fear loss of votes from pro-Ukraine aid constituents is also a big threat. In purple districts this could be a serious consideration. All incumbent politicians this time of year are in "survival" mode. The hope is that some who are afraid of the consequences of a "yes" vote can be made equally aware of similar consequences of a "no" vote (or no vote at all). One big reason the speaker is under pressure to not let the bill onto the floor is that many Rs would then be forced to pick a side publicly and visibly, and they would rather not do that.

[Goose]

Many of those Rs believe that Trump will defeat Biden, and Biden's anemic poll numbers reinforce their views.  Why should they risk their careers when they are convinced that the new administration will cut off Ukraine in less than a year?  Ukraine in their minds is already lost, and so there is no reason to "show courage" in a hopeless cause.

To get the Rs in Biden districts, and other residual hawkish Rs on board, Biden will have to start looking more like an 8 year President and Trump will have to start looking like he can't win.  That could happen, but it certainly has not so far. 

In short, the Rs in Congress are behaving very much like Trump and not Biden is the sitting President and likely to be reelected.  Trump is enjoying the benefits usually reserved for an incumbent--at least with his own party.

I would modify your statement above to "Many of those Rs believe that Trump MAY defeat Biden, and Biden's anemic poll numbers reinforce their views.  Why should they risk their careers when they are convinced that the new administration MAY cut off Ukraine in less than a year?". One doesn't have to believe it is a certainty or even more probable than not to question taking a risk. It comes down to "Which is more risky, voting for Ukraine aid or doing nothing?". Doing nothing looks way better to many.

IMO there is a much more proximate problem that worries Rs who might/do support Ukraine aid even more than who wins the presidential election. They too face an election, and whether Trump wins in November or not, he will FOR CERTAIN condemn anybody who votes for Ukraine aid RIGHT NOW. This poses an immediate loss of votes and subsequent loss of job for Rs both in the primary and in the general (if they get that far). IMO these Rs need to fear loss of votes from pro-Ukraine aid constituents is also a big threat. In purple districts this could be a serious consideration. All incumbent politicians this time of year are in "survival" mode. The hope is that some who are afraid of the consequences of a "yes" vote can be made equally aware of similar consequences of a "no" vote (or no vote at all). One big reason the speaker is under pressure to not let the bill onto the floor is that many Rs would then be forced to pick a side publicly and visibly, and they would rather not do that.