[Mick]

Did Boras go too far out on a limb?

He has a long track record of getting his clients top dollar.  Could this be the year in which he finds the resistence to overpay from MLB front offices is too strong to overcome?

Could be. Two of the four are deeply, deeply flawed. Snell won the Cy Young, but has only pitched more than 130 innings in a season twice, and half of his seasons were losing seasons, plus he led the league in walks and he's injury prone. he's 31 and his agent wants a 9 year contract. Bellinger is similar in that he's only had two really great years, five years apart, and he had a three-year mid-career slump. He adjusted, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate declined significantly, and he's playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB outside of Colorado (similar to Kris Bryant). Jordan Montgomery's never been an all-star, he's 19-17 with a 3.38 ERA in the last two years as a starter. 1.144 WHIP, which is strong. But do you pay BIG Boras Bucks (BBB) for a #3 starter? Farhan won't. Not this year anyway... ;)

Which brings us to Matt Chapman. Terrific, gold glove third baseman, good, not great hitter. Boras wants BBB for him. If you look at JD Davis's splits, his first half was superior to Chapman's season averages. JD tailed off badly last year, but that's not usually JD's pattern. His career first half OPS is .777, career second half OPS is .776. In fact, JD usually finishes with a bang, his career Sept/Oct OPS is .813, second highest. JD makes $6.9 million, and Chapman would be more than twice that. And the Blue Jays are the only other suitor for Chapman's services. And...does anyone remember that JD Davis was considered a fielding whiz earlier in the year?
J.D. Davis is suddenly a defensive whiz. How and why the change could be for real - The Athletic

So...you might be right, Giants.

[Mick]

Did Boras go too far out on a limb?

He has a long track record of getting his clients top dollar.  Could this be the year in which he finds the resistence to overpay from MLB front offices is too strong to overcome?

Could be. Two of the four are deeply, deeply flawed. Snell won the Cy Young, but has only pitched more than 130 innings in a season twice, and half of his seasons were losing seasons, plus he led the league in walks and he's injury prone. he's 31 and his agent wants a 9 year contract. Bellinger is similar in that he's only had two really great years, five years apart, and he had a three-year mid-career slump. He adjusted, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate declined significantly, and he's playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB outside of Colorado (similar to Kris Bryant). Jordan Montgomery's never been an all-star, he's 19-17 with a 3.38 ERA in the last two years as a starter. 1.144 WHIP, which is strong. But do you pay BIG Boras Bucks (BBB) for a #3 starter? Farhan won't. Not this year anyway... ;)

Which brings us to Matt Chapman. Terrific, gold glove third baseman, good, not great hitter. Boras wants BBB for him. If you look at JD Davis's splits, his first half was superior to Chapman's season averages. JD tailed off badly last year, but that's not usually JD's pattern. His career first half OPS is .777, career second half OPS is .776. In fact, JD usually finishes with a bang, his career Sept/Oct OPS is .813, second highest. JD makes $6.9 million, and Chapman would be more than twice that. And the Blue Jays are the only other suitor for Chapman's services. And...does anyone remember that JD Davis was considered a fielding whiz earlier in the year?
J.D. Davis is suddenly a defensive whiz. How and why the change could be for real - The Athletic

So...you might be right, Giants.